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Austin FC vs. St Louis City prediction, odds, MLS picks [5/3/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Austin FC vs St Louis City predictions for MLS Sunday.
MLS action continues on Sunday at 5:30 PM ET as St Louis City squares off with Austin at Q2 Stadium.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLS model predicts Austin as the most likely winner of the Austin vs. St Louis City game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.
Austin FC vs. St Louis City prediction: Who will win?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's MLS matchup between Austin and St Louis City, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently indicates a 42.2% chance of Austin winning, a 32.8% chance for St Louis City, and a 24.9% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 54% chance of going over, according to our model.
Austin FC vs. St Louis City odds
We have sourced the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Austin | St Louis City | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +155 | +160 | +260 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -145 | +100 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Austin FC vs. St Louis City picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Austin | +155 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | +100 |
According to our MLS best bets, the top play to make on this game is Austin to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Austin FC vs. St Louis City: Correct score predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| AUS 1-1 STL | 11.7% |
| AUS 1-0 STL | 8.9% |
| AUS 2-1 STL | 8.9% |
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.
Austin FC vs. St Louis City game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's matchup between Austin and St Louis City in MLS at Q2 Stadium is scheduled to begin at 5:30 PM ET.
- Who: Austin FC vs. St Louis City
- Date: Sunday, May 3, 2026
- Time: 5:30 PM ET/2:30PM PT
- Venue: Q2 Stadium
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Austin has a 42.2% win probability on Sunday, St Louis City has a 32.8% win probability, and there is a 24.9% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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