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Falcons vs. Buccaneers prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win ‘TNF’ Week 15 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers predictions for NFL Thursday.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will take on the Atlanta Falcons in NFL Week 15 action at Raymond James Stadium on Thursday, beginning at 8:15PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Buccaneers as the most likely winner of the Falcons vs. Buccaneers game.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Falcons vs. Bucs prediction: Who will win ‘Thursday Night Football’?
Since our Falcons-Buccaneers predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NFL matchup between the Falcons and Buccaneers 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Buccaneers a 68% chance of beating the Falcons in Week 15 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Buccaneers winning 24-19.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Falcons and Buccaneers each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 44.5-point over/under also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 15 straight up picks.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers odds
We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Falcons | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 (-105) | -4.5 (-108) |
| Moneyline | +200 | -225 |
| Total | o44.5 (-102) | u44.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Falcons +4.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Falcons | +200 |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -102 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 44.5 total points.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Falcons vs. Buccaneers?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for TNF, Bijan Robinson is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Falcons vs. Buccaneers.
Our projections give Robinson a 53.4% chance of scoring a TD at Raymond James Stadium, while the running back is a 13.6% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Atlanta Falcons
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (RB) | 53.4% |
| Tyler Allgeier (RB) | 36.2% |
| Kyle Pitts (TE) | 27.5% |
| Darnell Mooney (WR) | 21.7% |
| David Sills (WR) | 18.7% |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Bucky Irving (RB) | 38.2% |
| Mike Evans (WR) | 37.2% |
| Emeka Egbuka (WR) | 33.4% |
| Chris Godwin (WR) | 30.0% |
| Rachaad White (RB) | 20.6% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Atlanta Falcons
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (RB) | 13.6% |
| Tyler Allgeier (RB) | 8.0% |
| Kyle Pitts (TE) | 5.7% |
| Darnell Mooney (WR) | 4.3% |
| David Sills (WR) | 3.7% |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Bucky Irving (RB) | 8.8% |
| Mike Evans (WR) | 8.5% |
| Emeka Egbuka (WR) | 7.4% |
| Chris Godwin (WR) | 6.5% |
| Rachaad White (RB) | 4.2% |
Falcons vs Buccaneers player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Falcons and Buccaneers. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 15 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Falcons' Kirk Cousins is projected for 216 passing yards, while the Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield is expected to throw for 225 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins (ATL) | 216 |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | 225 |
Falcons rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 78 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 31 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4 |
Buccaneers rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 63 |
| Baker Mayfield | 22 |
| Rachaad White | 20 |
Falcons receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 60 |
| Darnell Mooney | 41 |
| Bijan Robinson | 40 |
| David Sills | 28 |
| Dylan Drummond | 23 |
Buccaneers receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Emeka Egbuka | 53 |
| Mike Evans | 47 |
| Chris Godwin | 45 |
| Bucky Irving | 22 |
| Payne Durham | 18 |
Falcons vs. Bucs game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 15 matchup between the Buccaneers and Falcons at Raymond James Stadium is scheduled to commence at 8:15PM ET.
- Who: Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Date: Thursday, December 11, 2025
- Time: 8:15PM ET/5:15PM PT
- Venue: Raymond James Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Buccaneers, with a 68% win probability, will likely beat the Falcons in Week 15 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Falcons vs. Buccaneers insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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