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Falcons vs. Saints prediction: New Orleans favored to win in NFL Week 12, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints predictions for NFL Sunday.
NFL Week 12 action continues on Sunday at 4:25PM ET as the Atlanta Falcons take on the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NFL model gives the Saints a slight edge with a 54% win probability over the Falcons.
This article offers an expanded analysis of this week's Falcons vs. Saints matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Falcons vs. Saints prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Falcons-Saints predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Falcons and Saints 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Saints a 54% chance of beating the Falcons in Week 12 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Saints winning 20-19.
According to our model, the Falcons (+3.5) have a 63% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 40.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 12 straight up picks.
Falcons vs. Saints odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Falcons | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3.5 (-125) | -3.5 (+100) |
| Moneyline | +142 | -125 |
| Total | o40.5 (+102) | u40.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Falcons vs. Saints picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Falcons +3.5 | -125 |
| Moneyline | Falcons | +142 |
| Total | Over 40.5 | +102 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Falcons +3.5 at the spread.
Falcons vs. Saints TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Falcons vs. Saints?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 12, Bijan Robinson is most likely to score an anytime TD in Falcons vs. Saints.
Our projections give Robinson a 53.2% chance of scoring a TD at Caesars Superdome, while the running back is a 15.1% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Atlanta Falcons
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (RB) | 53.2% |
| Tyler Allgeier (RB) | 36.4% |
| Kyle Pitts (TE) | 26.3% |
| Darnell Mooney (WR) | 24.8% |
| KhaDarel Hodge (WR) | 14.6% |
New Orleans Saints
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Chris Olave (WR) | 35.3% |
| Alvin Kamara (RB) | 30.5% |
| Juwan Johnson (TE) | 27.6% |
| Devaughn Vele (WR) | 21.8% |
| Taysom Hill (TE) | 21.4% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Atlanta Falcons
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (RB) | 15.1% |
| Tyler Allgeier (RB) | 9.0% |
| Kyle Pitts (TE) | 6.1% |
| Darnell Mooney (WR) | 5.7% |
| KhaDarel Hodge (WR) | 3.1% |
New Orleans Saints
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Chris Olave (WR) | 9.8% |
| Alvin Kamara (RB) | 8.2% |
| Juwan Johnson (TE) | 7.3% |
| Devaughn Vele (WR) | 5.5% |
| Taysom Hill (TE) | 5.4% |
Falcons vs Saints player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Falcons and Saints. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 12 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Falcons' Kirk Cousins is projected for 217 passing yards. The Saints' Tyler Shough is expected to throw for 211 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins (ATL) | 217 |
| Tyler Shough (NO) | 211 |
Falcons rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 84 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 31 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4 |
Saints rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 58 |
| Devin Neal | 20 |
| Taysom Hill | 19 |
Falcons receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 54 |
| Kyle Pitts | 53 |
| Bijan Robinson | 41 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 30 |
| David Sills | 25 |
Saints receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 72 |
| Juwan Johnson | 44 |
| Devaughn Vele | 32 |
| Mason Tipton | 22 |
| Alvin Kamara | 19 |
Falcons vs. Saints game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 12 matchup between the Saints and Falcons at Caesars Superdome is scheduled to commence at 4:25PM ET.
- Who: Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
- Date: Sunday, November 23, 2025
- Time: 4:25PM ET/1:25PM PT
- Venue: Caesars Superdome
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Conclusion
We predict the Saints, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Falcons in Week 12 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Falcons vs. Saints insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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