Falcons vs. Colts prediction: Why Indianapolis is favored to win in NFL Week 10, 2025

The Indianapolis Colts and Atlanta Falcons are scheduled to meet in Week 10 of the NFL season at Olympic Stadium Berlin on Sunday, with kickoff at 9:30AM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Colts as the most likely winner of the Falcons vs. Colts game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of this week's matchup, including touchdown scorer projections, best bets and player prop picks.

Falcons vs. Colts prediction: Who will win, cover the spread?

Since our Falcons-Colts predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Falcons and Colts 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Colts a 72% chance of defeating the Falcons in Week 10 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Colts winning 27-21.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Falcons and Colts each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 48.5 points also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 10 straight up picks.

Falcons vs. Colts odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Falcons	Colts
Spread	+6.5 (-112)	-6.5 (-104)
Moneyline	+250	-290
Total	o48.5 (-104)	u48.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Falcons vs. Colts picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Colts -6.5	-104
Moneyline	Falcons	+250
Total	Over 48.5	-104

According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Falcons to win.

Falcons vs. Colts TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Falcons vs. Colts?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Jonathan Taylor is most likely to score an anytime TD in Falcons vs. Colts.

Our projections give Taylor a 69.5% chance of scoring a TD at Olympic Stadium Berlin, while the running back is a 20.2% chance of registering the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Atlanta Falcons

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Bijan Robinson (RB)	50.3%
Drake London (WR)	38.1%
Tyler Allgeier (RB)	28.4%
Kyle Pitts (TE)	23.7%
Darnell Mooney (WR)	20.6%

Indianapolis Colts

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Jonathan Taylor (RB)	69.5%
Tyler Warren (TE)	33.7%
Michael Pittman (WR)	32.8%
Josh Downs (WR)	25.4%
Alec Pierce (WR)	25.1%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Atlanta Falcons

Player	First TD Probability
Bijan Robinson (RB)	12.3%
Drake London (WR)	8.4%
Tyler Allgeier (RB)	5.9%
Kyle Pitts (TE)	4.8%
Darnell Mooney (WR)	4.1%

Indianapolis Colts

Player	First TD Probability
Jonathan Taylor (RB)	20.2%
Tyler Warren (TE)	7.0%
Michael Pittman (WR)	6.7%
Josh Downs (WR)	5.0%
Alec Pierce (WR)	4.9%

Falcons vs Colts player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Falcons and Colts. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 10 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Falcons' Michael Penix is projected for 242 passing yards, while the Colts' Daniel Jones is expected to throw for 244 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Michael Penix (ATL)	242
Daniel Jones (IND)	244

Falcons rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Bijan Robinson	73
Tyler Allgeier	25
Michael Penix	11

Colts rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Jonathan Taylor	92
Daniel Jones	17
Ameer Abdullah	8

Falcons receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Drake London	75
Kyle Pitts	49
Bijan Robinson	41
Darnell Mooney	41
David Sills	9

Colts receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Michael Pittman	63
Alec Pierce	59
Tyler Warren	48
Josh Downs	43
Jonathan Taylor	21

Falcons vs. Colts game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 10 matchup between the Colts and Falcons at Olympic Stadium Berlin is scheduled to begin at 9:30AM ET.

• Who: Atlanta Falcons vs. Indianapolis Colts
• Date: Sunday, November 9, 2025
• Time: 9:30AM ET/6:30AM PT
• Venue: Olympic Stadium Berlin

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Conclusion

We predict the Colts, with a 72% win probability, will likely beat the Falcons in Week 10 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Falcons vs. Colts insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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