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Falcons vs. Cardinals prediction: Why Atlanta is favored to win in NFL Week 16 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Atlanta Falcons vs Arizona Cardinals predictions for NFL Sunday.
The Arizona Cardinals will square off with the Atlanta Falcons in NFL Week 16 action at State Farm Stadium on Sunday, beginning at 4:05 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Falcons as the most likely winner of the Falcons vs. Cardinals game.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Falcons vs. Cardinals prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Falcons-Cardinals predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Falcons and Cardinals 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Falcons a 56% chance of defeating the Cardinals in Week 16 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Falcons winning 24-23.
According to our model, the Cardinals (+2.5) have a 58% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 47.5 points has a 53% chance of going over.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 16 straight up picks.
Falcons vs. Cardinals odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Falcons | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -2.5 (-120) | +2.5 (-102) |
| Moneyline | -154 | +135 |
| Total | o47.5 (-118) | u47.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Falcons vs. Cardinals picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cardinals +2.5 | -102 |
| Moneyline | Cardinals | +135 |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -118 |
According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Cardinals +2.5 at the spread.
Falcons vs. Cardinals TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Falcons vs. Cardinals?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 16, Bijan Robinson is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Falcons vs. Cardinals.
Our projections give Robinson a 58.4% chance of scoring a TD at State Farm Stadium, while the running back is a 15.3% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Atlanta Falcons
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (RB) | 58.4% |
| Drake London (WR) | 39.6% |
| Tyler Allgeier (RB) | 37.8% |
| Kyle Pitts (TE) | 32.8% |
| Darnell Mooney (WR) | 19.2% |
Arizona Cardinals
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Trey McBride (TE) | 42.1% |
| Michael Carter (RB) | 36.0% |
| Michael Wilson (WR) | 34.8% |
| Marvin Harrison (WR) | 30.1% |
| Emari Demercado (RB) | 19.3% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Atlanta Falcons
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (RB) | 15.3% |
| Drake London (WR) | 8.8% |
| Tyler Allgeier (RB) | 8.3% |
| Kyle Pitts (TE) | 7.0% |
| Darnell Mooney (WR) | 3.7% |
Arizona Cardinals
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Trey McBride (TE) | 9.4% |
| Michael Carter (RB) | 7.7% |
| Michael Wilson (WR) | 7.4% |
| Marvin Harrison (WR) | 6.2% |
| Emari Demercado (RB) | 3.7% |
Falcons vs Cardinals player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Falcons and Cardinals. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 16 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Falcons' Kirk Cousins is projected for 232 passing yards. The Cardinals' Jacoby Brissett is expected to throw for 259 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins (ATL) | 232 |
| Jacoby Brissett (ARI) | 259 |
Falcons rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 97 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 35 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 |
Cardinals rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 53 |
| Emari Demercado | 21 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 15 |
Falcons receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Drake London | 72 |
| Kyle Pitts | 55 |
| Bijan Robinson | 39 |
| Darnell Mooney | 32 |
| David Sills | 22 |
Cardinals receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 71 |
| Michael Wilson | 61 |
| Marvin Harrison | 52 |
| Michael Carter | 22 |
| Jalen Brooks | 18 |
Falcons vs. Cardinals game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 16 game between the Cardinals and Falcons at State Farm Stadium is scheduled to start at 4:05 PM ET.
- Who: Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
- Time: 4:05 PM ET/1:05PM PT
- Venue: State Farm Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Falcons, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat the Cardinals in Week 16 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Falcons vs. Cardinals insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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