Arkansas State vs. Troy prediction: Why Troy is favored to win men's college basketball matchup [1/17/2026]

Men's college basketball action continues on Saturday at 4:33 PM ET as Arkansas State squares off with Troy in men's college basketball action at Trojan Arena.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven college basketball model predicts Troy as the most likely winner of the Arkansas State vs. Troy game.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.

Arkansas State vs. Troy prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's NCAA basketball game between Arkansas State and Troy 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Troy a 61% chance of beating Arkansas State. Our predicted final score has Troy winning 80-77.

According to our model, Arkansas State (+3.5) has a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 164.5 points has a 55% chance of staying under.

Arkansas State vs. Troy odds

We have sourced the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Arkansas State vs. Troy picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: