Arkansas State vs. Texas State prediction: Why Arkansas State is favored to win men's college basketball matchup [12/17/2025]

Texas State will take on Arkansas State in men's college basketball action at Strahan Arena at the University Events Center on Wednesday, starting at 8:30 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven college basketball model predicts Arkansas State as the most likely winner of the Arkansas State vs. Texas State game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.

Arkansas State vs. Texas State prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's NCAA basketball matchup between Arkansas State and Texas State 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Arkansas State a 64% chance of defeating Texas State. Our predicted final score has Arkansas State winning 78-74.

According to our model, Texas State (+4.5) has a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 153.5 points has a 52% chance of staying under.

Arkansas State vs. Texas State odds

We have researched the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Arkansas State vs. Texas State picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: