Arkansas-Little Rock vs. Tennessee State prediction: Why Tennessee State is favored to win men's college basketball matchup [1/29/2026]

Tennessee State and Arkansas-Little Rock will lock horns in men's college basketball action at Gentry Center on Thursday, starting at 8:30 PM ET.

The championship matchup pairs two 14–3 teams coming off sharply contrasting conference title games, with New England advancing through a low-scoring, snow-filled AFC Championship win over Denver and Seattle earning its place after a 31–27 NFC Championship thriller against the Rams.

The clash also spotlights two offensive focal points, with Drake Maye guiding New England through a composed, run-focused AFC title performance and Jaxon Smith-Njigba entering as Seattle’s primary playmaker following a 153-yard, one-touchdown outing in the NFC Championship.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced college basketball model predicts Tennessee State as the most likely winner of the Arkansas-Little Rock vs. Tennessee State game.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.

Arkansas-Little Rock vs. Tennessee State prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NCAA basketball matchup between Arkansas-Little Rock and Tennessee State 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Tennessee State a 67% chance of defeating Arkansas-Little Rock. Our predicted final score has Tennessee State winning 78-73.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and Arkansas-Little Rock and Tennessee State each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 151.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of going over.

Arkansas-Little Rock vs. Tennessee State odds

We have sourced the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Arkansas-Little Rock vs. Tennessee State picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

According to our men's college basketball best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 151.5 total points.

Arkansas-Little Rock vs. Tennessee State game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's men's college basketball matchup between Tennessee State and Arkansas-Little Rock at Gentry Center is scheduled to commence at 8:30 PM ET.

• Who: Arkansas-Little Rock vs. Tennessee State
• Date: Thursday, January 29, 2026
• Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30PM PT
• Venue: Gentry Center

Conclusion

We predict Tennessee State, with a 67% win probability, will likely beat Arkansas-Little Rock on Thursday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Arkansas-Little Rock vs. Tennessee State insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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