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Alaves vs. Real Madrid prediction, odds, La Liga picks [12/14/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Alaves vs Real Madrid predictions for La Liga Sunday.
Alaves and Real Madrid will meet in La Liga at Estadio Mendizorrotza on Sunday, starting at 3:00PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven La Liga model predicts Real Madrid as the most likely winner of the Alaves vs. Real Madrid game.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Alaves vs. Real Madrid prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's La Liga match between Alaves and Real Madrid 10,000 times as part of our La Liga predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently indicates a 20.8% chance of Alaves winning, a 55.8% chance for Real Madrid, and a 23.3% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 52% chance of going over, according to our model.
Alaves vs. Real Madrid odds
We have researched the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Alaves | Real Madrid | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +500 | -165 | +310 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -128 | +104 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Alaves vs. Real Madrid picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alaves | +500 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | +104 |
According to our best La Liga bets, the top play to make on this game is Alaves to win.
Alaves vs. Real Madrid: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scoresaccording to our model, with a 1-0 Real Madrid win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| ALV 0-1 MAD | 11.3% |
| ALV 1-1 MAD | 11.1% |
| ALV 0-2 MAD | 10% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 51.9% chance that both Alaves and Real Madrid score, and a 48.1% probability of at least one team being held goalless.
These predictions are based on each team's average score after 10,000 simulations.
Alaves vs. Real Madrid game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's La Liga game between Alaves and Real Madrid at Estadio Mendizorrotza is scheduled to begin in the United States at 3:00PM ET.
- Who: Alaves vs. Real Madrid
- Date: Sunday, December 14, 2025
- Time: 3:00PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Alaves has a 20.8% win probability on Sunday, Real Madrid has a 55.8% win probability, and there is a 23.3% chance that the game will end in a draw.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Alaves vs. Real Madrid insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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