Alaves vs. Real Madrid Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Alaves vs. Real Madrid La Liga match on December 14, 2025 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LA LIGA
Real Madrid
2
1
Estadio Mendizorrotza
Alaves
Estadio Mendizorrotza
AlavesALA
Score Summary
Real MadridRMA
C. Vicente (70')
Soccer ball icon
K. Mbappe (24')
Soccer ball icon
Rodrygo (76')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Alaves
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Real Madrid
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Yellow Card
    A. Guevara (Alaves) cautioned
  2. 89'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: Yusi replaces V. Parada
  3. 89'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: F. Mastantuono replaces Vinicius Junior
  4. 83'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: B. Diaz replaces Rodrygo
  5. 83'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: A. Guevara replaces D. Suarez
  6. 80'
    Yellow Card
    Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid) cautioned
  7. 79'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: D. Huijsen replaces V. Valdepenas
  8. 78'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: G. Garcia replaces A. Guler
  9. 76'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Real Madrid by Rodrygo, assisted by Vinicius Junior
    2-1
  10. 70'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Alaves by C. Vicente, assisted by A. Blanco
    1-1
  11. 68'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: C. Vicente replaces Calebe
  12. 68'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: C. Alena replaces A. Rebbach
  13. 68'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: T. Martinez replaces P. Ibanez
  14. 24'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Real Madrid by K. Mbappe, assisted by J. Bellingham
    1-0
  15. 6'
    Yellow Card
    V. Parada (Alaves) cautioned

Alaves vs. Real Madrid: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Alaves vs. Real Madrid
  • Date: Sunday, December 14, 2025
  • Time: 3:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Alaves +500, Real Madrid -175, draw +310
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-125/+100)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Alaves: 20.8%
  • Real Madrid: 55.8%
  • Draw: 23.3%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Alaves 0-1 Real Madrid (11.3%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Alaves vs. Real Madrid? Prediction & correct score

Real Madrid is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 55.8%.

The most likely correct score is Alaves 0-1 Real Madrid.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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Responsible gambling

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