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Brisbane Lions vs. Adelaide Crows prediction: Lions favored to win Sunday's AFL Round 7 matchup [4/26/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows predictions for AFL Sunday.
The Brisbane Lions will square off with the Adelaide Crows in Australian Football League (AFL) action at The Gabba on Sunday, starting at 1:15 AM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven AFL model projects the Lions as the most likely winner of the Crows vs. Lions game.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Lions vs. Crows prediction: Who will win Round 7 game?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's AFL matchup between the Crows and Lions, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Lions a 74% chance of beating the Crows.
According to our model, the Crows (+22.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the 189.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.
Adelaide vs. Brisbane odds
We have researched the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Crows | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | +250 | -345 |
| Line (Spread) | +22.5 (-115) | -22.5 (-115) |
| Total | o189.5 (-115) | u189.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Crows vs. Lions picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Crows +22.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Crows | +250 |
| Total | Under 189.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Crows +22.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Lions vs. Crows game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's Australian rules football game between the Lions and Crows at The Gabba is scheduled to start at 1:15 AM ET.
- Who: Adelaide Crows vs. Brisbane Lions
- Date: Sunday, April 26, 2026
- Time: 1:15 AM ET/10:15PM PT
- Venue: The Gabba
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Lions, with a 74% win probability, will likely beat the Crows in Sunday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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