Liberty vs. Aces prediction: Las Vegas favored to win Thursday's WNBA game [7/30/2026]
Get New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces predictions for WNBA Thursday.
The Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty will meet in the WNBA at Michelob ULTRA Arena on Thursday, with tipoff at 10:00 PM ET.
Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Aces as the most likely winner in this Liberty vs. Aces prediction.
The Aces, with the likes of A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray, will face off against the Liberty, featuring Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Liberty vs. Aces prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Aces a 66.6% chance of beating the Liberty.
According to our model, the Aces (-4.5) have a 50.1% chance of covering the spread, while the 182.5-point over/under has a 67.3% chance of staying under,.
Liberty vs. Aces odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Liberty | Aces |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 (-104) | -4.5 (+100) |
| Moneyline | +170 | -178 |
| Total | o182.5 (-106) | u182.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Liberty vs. Aces picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Aces -4.5 | +100 |
| Moneyline | Aces | -178 |
| Total | Under 182.5 | -110 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 182.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Liberty vs. Aces player props
WNBA player props are a popular way to wager on Thursday's New York vs. Las Vegas matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Michelob ULTRA Arena.
Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 19 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists, while A'ja Wilson is projected to have 25 points, 9 rebounds and 4 assists for the Aces.
Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Breanna Stewart as the most likely player to open the scoring.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Liberty prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 19 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 41 |
| Sabrina Ionescu | 17 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 33 |
| Jonquel Jones | 13 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 32 |
| Pauline Astier | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 19 |
| Marine Johannes | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
Aces prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Aces:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson | 25 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 49 |
| Jackie Young | 19 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 39 |
| Chelsea Gray | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 32 |
| NaLyssa Smith | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 20 |
| Jewell Loyd | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
Liberty vs. Aces game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's matchup between the Aces and Liberty at Michelob ULTRA Arena is scheduled to commence at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces
- Date: Thursday, July 30, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Aces, with a 66.6% win probability, will likely beat the Liberty in Thursday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
