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Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, July 30, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 7/30.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, July 30, 2026—are live with the Aces' A'ja Wilson projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections derive insights from detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Wilson, Marina Mabrey and Breanna Stewart lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (July 30, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson (Aces) | 15.5% |
| Marina Mabrey (Tempo) | 15.5% |
| Breanna Stewart (Liberty) | 15.3% |
| Sydney Taylor (Sky) | 14.3% |
| Kamilla Cardoso (Sky) | 14.0% |
| Olivia Nelson-Ododa (Sun) | 13.7% |
| Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty) | 12.8% |
| Leila Lacan (Sun) | 12.3% |
| Napheesa Collier (Lynx) | 11.7% |
| Jackie Young (Aces) | 11.7% |
| Nyara Sabally (Tempo) | 11.5% |
| Kayla McBride (Lynx) | 11.2% |
| Olivia Miles (Lynx) | 11.1% |
| NaLyssa Smith (Aces) | 10.9% |
| Laura Juskaite (Tempo) | 9.9% |
| Jonquel Jones (Liberty) | 9.6% |
| Kennedy Burke (Sun) | 9.0% |
| Courtney Vandersloot (Sky) | 8.9% |
| Diamond Miller (Sun) | 8.6% |
| Courtney Williams (Lynx) | 8.2% |
| Pauline Astier (Liberty) | 8.2% |
| Natasha Howard (Lynx) | 7.8% |
| Maria Conde (Tempo) | 7.4% |
| Chelsea Gray (Aces) | 6.8% |
| Jacy Sheldon (Sky) | 6.6% |
| Charlisse Leger-Walker (Sun) | 6.3% |
| Natasha Cloud (Sky) | 6.2% |
| Julie Allemand (Tempo) | 5.7% |
| Jewell Loyd (Aces) | 5.0% |
| Rebecca Allen (Liberty) | 4.1% |
WNBA first basket picks today (July 30, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla McBride | Lynx | 3.5% | +1200 | 11.2% |
| NaLyssa Smith | Aces | 3.2% | +1200 | 10.9% |
| Sydney Taylor | Sky | 3.2% | +800 | 14.3% |
| Jackie Young | Aces | 1.7% | +900 | 11.7% |
| Leila Lacan | Sun | 1.6% | +830 | 12.3% |
| Pauline Astier | Liberty | 0.1% | +1140 | 8.2% |
| Nyara Sabally | Tempo | 0.1% | +780 | 11.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of WNBA prop bets for 7/30.
Conclusion: Betting on today's WNBA first basket
For Thursday, July 30, 2026, A'ja Wilson, Marina Mabrey and Breanna Stewart lead our first basket projections, while Kayla McBride shapes as the strongest value play at +1200. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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