Aces vs. Valkyries prediction favors Golden State to win Game 1 [2026 WNBA Playoffs]

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's WNBA matchup between the Aces and Valkyries, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Valkyries a 53.7% chance of beating the Aces in Game 1 of the series. According to our model, the Valkyries (-1.5) have a 53.4% chance of covering the spread, while the 160.5-point over/under has a 59.3% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Aces +1.5 (-127) / Valkyries -1.5 (+122)
• Moneyline: Aces -113, Valkyries +108
• Total: Over/Under 160.5 (+100/-104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet for Game 1

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Valkyries -1.5 @ 45¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Valkyries @ 48¢ via Polymarket
• Total: Over 160.5 @ 50¢ via Polymarket

According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 160.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Top Game 1 player props

Betting on Aces vs. Valkyries WNBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Chase Center.

A'ja Wilson is expected to lead the Aces with 23 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists, while Gabby Williams is projected to have 13 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists for the Valkyries.

Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight A'ja Wilson as the most likely player to open the scoring.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Aces player props

Our model's projected player stats for the Aces are:

• A'ja Wilson: 23 PTS, 9 REB, 3 AST
• Jackie Young: 17 PTS, 4 REB, 7 AST
• Jewell Loyd: 12 PTS, 3 REB, 1 AST
• Chelsea Gray: 9 PTS, 3 REB, 6 AST
• Stephanie Talbot: 9 PTS, 4 REB, 1 AST

Valkyries player props

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Valkyries:

• Gabby Williams: 13 PTS, 3 REB, 2 AST
• Janelle Salaun: 12 PTS, 4 REB, 1 AST
• Veronica Burton: 9 PTS, 3 REB, 5 AST
• Tiffany Hayes: 9 PTS, 2 REB, 2 AST
• Cecilia Zandalasini: 8 PTS, 2 REB, 2 AST

Game info & tip-off details

Sunday's Game 1 between the Valkyries and Aces at Chase Center is scheduled to start at 4:00 PM ET.

• Who: Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries
• Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
• Time: 4:00 PM ET/1:00PM PT
• Venue: Chase Center

Conclusion

We predict the Valkyries, with a 53.7% win probability, will likely beat the Aces in Sunday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.