WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Playoffs today, Sunday, October 4, 2026

WNBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (October 4, 2026)

• A'ja Wilson (Aces): 18.8% probability
• Gabby Williams (Valkyries): 16.0% probability
• Jackie Young (Aces): 13.9% probability
• Breanna Stewart (Liberty): 13.9% probability
• Cecilia Zandalasini (Valkyries): 13.6% probability
• Angel Reese (Dream): 13.1% probability
• Jonquel Jones (Liberty): 13.0% probability
• Allisha Gray (Dream): 11.4% probability
• Rhyne Howard (Dream): 10.5% probability
• Veronica Burton (Valkyries): 8.9% probability
• Pauline Astier (Liberty): 8.8% probability
• Chelsea Gray (Aces): 8.5% probability
• Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty): 8.4% probability
• Jordin Canada (Dream): 7.9% probability
• Jewell Loyd (Aces): 7.4% probability
• Kayla Thornton (Valkyries): 7.3% probability
• Naz Hillmon (Dream): 7.1% probability
• Leonie Fiebich (Liberty): 5.9% probability
• Kiah Stokes (Valkyries): 4.3% probability
• Brianna Turner (Aces): 1.4% probability

WNBA first basket picks today (October 4, 2026)

• Pauline Astier (Liberty): 2.9% edge at +1600
• Jackie Young (Aces): 2.8% edge at +800
• Gabby Williams (Valkyries): 1.7% edge at +600
• Jordin Canada (Dream): 0.8% edge at +1300
• Breanna Stewart (Liberty): 0.6% edge at +650
• Chelsea Gray (Aces): 0.3% edge at +1120

Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.

For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of WNBA prop bets for 10/4.

Conclusion: Betting on today's WNBA first basket

For the Playoffs action on Sunday, October 4, 2026, A'ja Wilson, Gabby Williams and Jackie Young lead our first basket projections, while Pauline Astier shapes as the strongest value play at +1600. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.

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