Valkyries vs. Mercury prediction: Why Golden State is favored to win Wednesday's WNBA matchup [7/29/2026]
Get Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury predictions for WNBA Wednesday.
WNBA action continues on Wednesday at 10:00 PM ET as the Golden State Valkyries lock horns with the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Valkyries as the most likely winner in this Valkyries vs. Mercury prediction.
The Mercury, who have stars like Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, are set to take on the Valkyries, who feature Veronica Burton, Gabby Williams and Kayla Thornton.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Valkyries vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our independent predictive model gives the Valkyries a 59.9% chance of beating the Mercury.
According to our model, the Mercury (+3.5) have a 52.7% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 156.5 points has a 66.1% chance of going over,.
Valkyries vs. Mercury odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Valkyries | Mercury |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -3.5 (-108) | +3.5 (+106) |
| Moneyline | -163 | +167 |
| Total | o156.5 (+100) | u156.5 (-102) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Valkyries vs. Mercury picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercury +3.5 | +106 |
| Moneyline | Mercury | +167 |
| Total | Over 156.5 | +100 |
According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 156.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Valkyries vs. Mercury player props
WNBA prop bets are an enjoyable way to wager on the Golden State vs. Phoenix game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Veronica Burton is expected to lead the Valkyries with 13 points, 4 rebounds and 6 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 18 points, 4 rebounds and 1 assists for the Mercury.
Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Kahleah Copper as the most likely player to open the scoring.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Valkyries prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Valkyries are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veronica Burton | 13 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 34 |
| Gabby Williams | 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 24 |
| Kayla Thornton | 10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 23 |
| C. Zandalasini | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 |
| Janelle Salaun | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
Mercury prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 18 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 29 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 12 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 39 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 9 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 21 |
| M. Akoa-Makani | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| Valeriane Ayayi | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
Valkyries vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's matchup between the Mercury and Valkyries at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to commence at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix Mercury
- Date: Wednesday, July 29, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
Conclusion
We predict the Valkyries, with a 59.9% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Wednesday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
