Valkyries vs. Mercury prediction: Why Golden State is favored to win Wednesday's WNBA matchup [7/29/2026]

The Phoenix Mercury and Golden State Valkyries will lock horns in the WNBA at Mortgage Matchup Center on Wednesday, starting at 10:00 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Valkyries as the most likely winner in this Valkyries vs. Mercury prediction.

The Mercury, with the likes of Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, are set to take on the Valkyries, featuring Veronica Burton, Tiffany Hayes and Janelle Salaun.

This article offers further insights into Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Valkyries vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's WNBA matchup between the Valkyries and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Valkyries a 58.4% chance of defeating the Mercury.

According to our model, the Mercury (+3.5) have a 54.7% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 157.5 points has a 63.3% chance of going over,.

Valkyries vs. Mercury odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Valkyries	Mercury
Spread	-3.5 (-104)	+3.5 (-105)
Moneyline	-150	+144
Total	o157.5 (-105)	u157.5 (-104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Valkyries vs. Mercury picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Mercury +3.5	-105
Moneyline	Mercury	+144
Total	Over 157.5	-105

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 157.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Valkyries vs. Mercury player props

WNBA player props are an exciting way to wager on Wednesday's Golden State vs. Phoenix matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Veronica Burton is expected to lead the Valkyries with 13 points, 4 rebounds and 6 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 18 points, 4 rebounds and 1 assists for the Mercury.

For early game action, the data identifies Kahleah Copper as the most probable player to secure the first basket.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Valkyries prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Valkyries are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Veronica Burton	13	4	6	2	34
Tiffany Hayes	13	3	3	2	25
Janelle Salaun	11	4	1	2	21
Kayla Thornton	10	6	1	2	23
C. Zandalasini	9	2	2	2	18

Mercury prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	18	4	1	2	29
Alyssa Thomas	12	8	8	0	39
DeWanna Bonner	9	6	1	1	21
M. Akoa-Makani	8	2	3	1	18
Valeriane Ayayi	5	2	1	1	12

Valkyries vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details

Wednesday's matchup between the Mercury and Valkyries at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to commence at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Wednesday, July 29, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Conclusion

We predict the Valkyries, with a 58.4% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Wednesday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.