Ed Sheeran got himself in hot water without even actually doing anything controversial. The popular English songwriter got caught in the crossfire when Macklemore made comments supporting Palestine. His “Free Palestine" statement occurred while he was opening for Sheeran during a concert at MetLife Stadium in early September.
As a result, Sheeran removed Macklemore from his tour. But prediction markets are now jumping in, offering contract events on whether Macklemore will rejoin. After all, second chances (if you can call this a second chance) aren’t uncommon in America.
Loop Tour: A Controversy That You Can Now Predict
Several
prediction market sites, including Kalshi, let you buy and sell contracts on Macklemore's return to the Loop Tour. Sheeran could be waiting until things blow over before he brings Macklemore back, but things aren’t that simple nowadays.
After Macklemore was removed, other supporting acts on the Loop Tour dropped out. But it gets even worse for Sheeran: venue owners hosting shows for the Loop Tour (including Robert Kraft of the New England Patriots) had pressured him into this decision. The tour was in jeopardy, causing a nightmare situation for fans and promoters.
Here’s a breakdown of the events:
- September 4: Macklemore expresses pro-Palestinian comments on stage during Sheeran’s tour.
- September 5: Public backlash and fallout occur immediately. Macklemore addresses his fans directly on stage and clarifies that his criticism is directed toward the Israeli government.
- September 10: Pressure is mounting. Venue owners begin contacting promoters about it and threatening to cancel shows.
- September 14: Macklemore is removed from the Loop Tour. Other opening acts remove themselves from the tour a little later on in solidarity.
- September 15: Sheeran addresses the situation publicly for the first time. He explains that he doesn’t want his concerts to be political spaces that divide people.
- Late September: Macklemore announces his “Free Palestine” tour. The Loop Tour resumes its normal schedule.
What Kalshi Thinks Will Happen
As of October, Kalshi indicates there’s only a 5% chance Macklemore will rejoin Sheeran’s tour. This isn't a surprise, because after Macklemore was removed, he announced his own independent “Free Palestine” tour.
Ed Sheeran also made it pretty clear that he’s apolitical and views himself as an entertainer whose music helps unite everyone. He expressed regret about how the situation unfolded, but he hasn’t indicated that he’ll bring Macklemore back on his tour.
With
culture prediction markets, picking an outcome can be tricky because human nature is as unpredictable as it gets. Plus, liquidity in this market is very thin, with traders backing off because of the situation's volatility.
In our view, it seems pretty apparent that Macklemore won’t be rejoining the Loop Tour. Both parties appear to be content with going their separate ways. Plus, the high-level controversy that his comments caused was enough to anger corporate venue owners.
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