The 2026 Formula 1 season is well underway with multiple races already complete, but there’s still many races left to go. Unsurprisingly, prediction market traders are already trying to work out who will be the most likely F1 driver champion.
The markets at platforms such as Kalshi are indicating newcomer Kimi Antonelli could win his first championship. But one of the most experienced drivers, Lewis Hamilton, is already trying to chase him down in the rankings. Keep reading as we discuss more about recent F1 performances and potential outcomes in this market.
The Formula 1 season has already got off to an exciting start with rookie sensation Kimi Antonelli emerging as the championship leader after winning five of the opening seven races for Mercedes. Still, with another fifteen races in the F1 calendar, there’s time for other drivers to stake their own claim on the titles.
For instance, Lewis Hamilton has enjoyed a strong resurgence with Ferrari, claiming his first victory for the team at the Spanish Grand Prix and consistently challenging for podiums. You’ve also got George Russell who has delivered solid results, while Charles Leclerc has remained competitive despite Ferrari's inconsistent pace. Max Verstappen has faced a difficult campaign recently, but he’s a heavyweight of the F1 world, so his form could change at any moment.
Formula 1 might be one of the hardest
sports prediction
markets to forecast, but there are several factors you can look out for. Including:
- Consistency – Regular points finishes are often more valuable than occasional race wins.
- Car competitiveness – A fast and reliable car is important for challenging over a full season.
- Reliability – Avoiding mechanical failures can make a huge difference in the championship.
- Team development – Mid-season upgrades can dramatically improve or hinder performance.
- Driver adaptability – The ability to perform well on different circuit types and in varying weather conditions.
- Race strategy – Effective pit stop decisions and tyre management accumulate valuable points throughout the season.
How to Trade This Question at Kalshi
Kalshi has quickly become one of the most popular
prediction market sites
in the United States. The platform currently offers a market for who will be the next F1 driver’s champion in 2026. Here’s how the different outcomes are priced:
| Who Will Be the F1 Drivers Champion in 2026? | Chance | “Yes” Share price | “No” Share price |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 63% | $0.63 | $0.39 |
| Lewis Hamilton | 19% | $0.21 | $0.81 |
| George Russell | 12% | $0.12 | $0.89 |
But Kalshi offers much more than this F1 market. It delivers 24/7 support, a dedicated mobile app, fast payments, and a wide variety of prediction market topics covering sports, culture, economics, politics, climate, crypto, and more. You can also get started today with the link above to claim a $10 trading bonus.
Trade Your Predictions for the F1 Drivers Champion
With seven races completed out of twenty-two, the F1 season is quickly heating up. Newcomer Andrea Antonelli looks to be the most likely to take the win, but the markets are still factoring in competition from Lewis Hamilton, George Russell, and a few others. You can trade your own predictions on this event today by using any of our links to visit Kalshi.
Advertiser disclosure
