With the FIFA World Cup only a few months away, players are gearing up for their best performance. That's because it's one of the factors that determine who wins important awards like the Ballon d’Or.
Besides soccer, other sports such as basketball, baseball, and American football also have major award nominations. If you've been following these sports this season and have tracked every major update, including injuries, you can test your knowledge on prediction sites. This article discusses the top factors that can drive eligibility for sports awards and what can prevent it.
Leading Sports Awards Contenders on Prediction Markets for 2026
The current market favorites for this year's sports awards include:
Ballon D’Or: Lamine Yamal (Barcelona) and Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid) are the top contenders for this year's Ballon d’Or, followed closely by Harry Kane (Bayern Munich).
NFL MVP: Drake Maye has become a force to be reckoned with following his record-breaking efficiency in the last couple of matches. At the moment, he’s a top contender to veteran Matthew Stafford.
NBA MVP: After leading the Thunder to a 37-10 record in the Western Conference, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the favorite to win back-to-back MVPs. However, Luka Doncic is another basketball player with surging popularity in the market after becoming the fastest Laker to hit 2,000 points.
Despite a minor knee injury, Nicolas Jokic remains another top contender.
MLB MVP: Julio Rodriguez (Mariners) and Juan Soto (Mets) are the top picks for their respective league's MVPs.
Key Factors That Increase Eligibility for Sports Awards
The following are the top factors that could increase an athlete's eligibility for a major sports award:
The FIFA World Cup is one of the factors that determine the recipients of global sports awards. An outstanding performance at MetLife Stadium can overshadow domestic performance.
Team Success
Players in losing teams rarely get individual awards. Leading a team to a great postseason run or to become title holders can boost a player’s chances.
Athletes who perform excellently against rival teams or in highly rated leagues, such as the Champions League, will attract more attention.
Advanced Efficiency Metrics
Voters now prioritize metrics like Expected Goals (xG), Total QuarterBack Rating (QBR), and Win Above Replacement (WAR) before choosing award recipients, unlike before, when traditional counting stats like goals and touchdowns were considered.
Factors That Could Prevent Sports Award Eligibility
Here are a few factors that may prevent a top athlete from getting a sports award this year:
Late Season Meltdowns
A poor performance in a major game can erase your months of dominance. For instance, Matthew Stafford’s chances dipped after his performance in the Rams vs Bears match on January 18th, 2026.
Major Injury Sabotage
A chronic groin issue or a mid-season ACL tear can significantly reduce an athlete's chances of performing at their best and winning a sports award.
Ethic Violations
Off-field legal issues or on-field altercations can lead to immediate disqualification from award categories.
What Analysts and Forecast Models Are Saying
As usual, opinions and predictions are divided about who will qualify for a sports award this year. Although veterans like Kane and Stafford are holding their ground, the data favor younger, efficient players like Drake Maye and Lamine Yamal.
We found some
sports prediction markets
that gave Harry Kane a 32% chance of winning the Ballon d’Or if England performs well in the World Cup under Thomas Tuchel.
How to Trade This Question at Prediction Sites
If you're ready to make a forecast on awards this year, you need to sign up at a
sports predictions
site. We've outlined the steps below. Although the registration process differs from one prediction brand to another, they usually follow these steps:
- Check the banners on this page to choose your preferred prediction site.
- Click on your chosen site’s associated banner to visit the official website.
- Sign up and move to the Sports section.
- Look for award contracts.
- Make your forecast (Yes or No) on your preferred contract.
The table below shows some sports award markets we found at prediction sites:
| Leading sports award markets | Top contenders and probability |
| Pro Basketball (M) MVP Winner | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (79%)
Luka Doncic (10%) |
| Pro Football MVP Winner | Matthew Stafford (86%)
Drake Maye (12%) |
| Who will win the Ballon d’Or this year? | Kylian Mbappe (31%)
Lamine Yamal (22%)
Harry Kane (17%) |
Conclusion – Make a Yes or No Forecast on Who Will Receive a Sports Award in 2026
The 2026 sports awards won’t be a simple popularity test. Award recipients will have to` meet strict eligibility requirements and undergo raw stats checks.
A late-season meltdown or poor performance can significantly affect an athlete's eligibility to get an award. In contrast, an outstanding performance at major sports events, such as the FIFA World Cup, can significantly tilt the balance in a player’s favor.
If you've been following sports updates and are confident in your knowledge, you can make a Yes or No forecast on who will receive a sports award this year at top-rated prediction sites. Click the banners on this page to pick one and sign up today.
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