Bills vs. Texans: NFL Week 1 Prediction, Picks & Odds

Dimers' Bills vs. Texans prediction for Sunday, September 13, 2026. Win probabilities, projected final score, current odds, and picks from our NFL machine learning models.
FINAL
NFL
FINAL
NFL sport icon
NFL
Bills
36
31
Reliant Stadium
Texans
Reliant Stadium
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Bills
    99%
  • Texans
    1%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Bills
3 21 3 9 36
Texans
7 14 0 10 31
1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 1 0
Texans
Bills
2nd and 11 at the BUF 25
Last Play
J.Allen kneels at the BUF 24.

Bills vs. Texans: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup overview: NFL Week 1

  • Teams: Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans
  • Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
  • Time: 1:00PM ET
  • Venue: Reliant Stadium

Current betting odds

  • Spread: Bills (-0.5, -104), Texans (+0.5, +100)
  • Moneyline: Bills +100, Texans +100
  • Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points (+100/-104)

Dimers’ win probabilities

  • Bills: 58.1%
  • Texans: 41.9%

These probabilities come from two machine learning models that assess more than 100 data points for each NFL matchup, combining their outputs to project all our major betting markets.

Projected final score

Our predicted final score for this NFL matchup is Bills 24-22 Texans.

This prediction draws on each team's scoring trends and player stats, weighed across both of our data models.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

The numbers give the Bills a win probability of 58.1%, while the Texans have a win probability of 41.9%.

Summary

The Bills face off against the Texans in the NFL at Reliant Stadium on Sunday, September 13, 2026.

Our Bills vs. Texans predictions, built on real-time data and matchup-specific modeling, help guide your decisions.. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert NFL predictions and the best NFL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NFL props, NFL futures, NFL odds, and the latest NFL news.