Updated Super Bowl predictions, odds and best NFL Division winner bets after Week 5

With five weeks of the 2026 NFL season in the books, the Super Bowl LXI futures betting landscape has evolved significantly since Week 1.

While the Dimers NFL predictions model still has the Los Angeles Rams as the most likely Super Bowl LXI winner, division races are taking shape and we're closing in on some value with at least four games in the books for every team. 

A lot has changed since our preseason betting preview.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are 4-0 coming out of their bye, the Vikings are 5-0 with the league's stingiest defense, and the Rams sit at 2-3 despite ranking first in total offense and remaning the Super Bowl LXI favorite. Defending champion Seattle has dropped two of its last three, and the NFC East is led by a Giants team starting its backup quarterback.

Nothing is ever certain in the NFL, and that won't change with 13 more weeks to go.

To keep us one step ahead of the books at every turn, the Dimers model is constantly simulating the rest of the season to produce updated Super Bowl LXI probabilities, Conference winners and outlooks on Division races.

When our probability is higher than the price implies, that's value, and it's how we cashed a +9350 NFL Division winner parlay last season.

We found a handful of preseason edges that are looking good for those holding a ticket. If you missed out or are looking to add to the mix with some midseason value, here's where it stands after Week 5.

Who will win Super Bowl LXI?

Before we dig in to the division winner value, let's take a look at the Top 5 Super Bowl 61 contenders according to the Dimers model.

Most of them have seen their odds shorten since the beginning of the season, with the biggest adjustment seen on the Chiefs, who are off to a 4-0 start, down to +1000 from +1700 preseason,

Los Angeles Rams (2-3) The Rams rank first in total offense and third in total defense yet sit at 2-3. Our model still makes them the favorite, but +720 implies a 12.2% chance, so the market is shorter on them than we are. In the preseason we called the Rams the worst value of the top five at +500, and that hasn't changed, even at better odds.

Seattle Seahawks (3-2) The defending champions are the only top-five team carrying value. Turnovers have been a problem lately as they've dropped two of their last three. Sam Darnold has five interceptions since returning from his Week 1 injury, and Seattle's giveaways led to 41 points in its two losses. In the preseason, Seattle was +1200 with a 5.8% model probability, which wasn't enough. The price has moved up and down before settling back at their opening odds, but Dimers now has the Seahawks at 8.8%, above the 7.7% that +1200 implies.

Buffalo Bills (4-1) The Bills are tied for the league lead at 32.8 points per game in Joe Brady's first season as head coach, and Josh Allen ran just for 121 yards in the overtime win in Los Angeles in what could be a Super Bowl preview. At +800, though, Buffalo is priced at 11.1% against the model's 8.5%.

Baltimore Ravens (4-1) Baltimore won in overtime at Atlanta with Tyler Huntley starting for an injured Lamar Jackson, who could return this week in Cleveland. Like the Bills, the Ravens are overpriced at +800 and are the only team in the top five dealing with an active injury to its starting QB.

Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) Mahomes is back from last December's torn ACL, and Kansas City is unbeaten through four games, though two of those wins came by three points. The Chiefs were +1700 in our preseason preview, which we called the closest to fair among the top five, and are now +1000. At today's price, there's no value and despite the hot start, we've only increased their chances by 1.4%.

Best NFL Division winner value after Week 5

AFC East: New England Patriots (+220)

Dimers probability: 37.0% | Fair odds: +170 | Implied probability: 31.3%

Buffalo leads the AFC East at 4-1, but the defending AFC champions are one game back at 3-2 and already own the head-to-head result over the Bills after a critical Week 4 win.

Drake Maye threw three touchdowns in a 29-26 win in Orchard Park in Week 4, then accounted for five touchdowns (four passing, one rushing) with no turnovers in Sunday's 45-17 rout of the Raiders.

The market is valuing New England like a clear second, and they are, but our model gives the Patriots a 37.0% chance to win the division, so +220 is too long. The risk to watch is health: left tackle Will Campbell and running back TreVeyon Henderson both left Sunday's game, and cornerback Christian Gonzalez is out.

AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers (+1100)

Dimers probability: 10.9% | Fair odds: +817 | Implied probability: 8.3%

This is one of two divisions in which every team has a winning record.

Baltimore leads at 4-1, and the Bengals, Steelers and Browns are all bunched behind at 3-2. Pittsburgh has the profile of a team that could get hot: Aaron Rodgers threw three touchdowns in Sunday's 34-22 win over the Colts, his third straight game with three or more, tying a franchise record.

The Steelers already beat Cincinnati 30-27 and lost at Cleveland 27-24 on a 56-yard field goal with 10 seconds left, so they're a few plays from leading the division.

This is a longshot, and Pittsburgh's point differential is just +2, but +1100 undersells a team we give nearly an 11% chance.

NFC East: New York Giants (+380)

Dimers probability: 31.1% | Fair odds: +222 | Implied probability: 20.8%

Two teams carry value in the NFC East, but the bigger gap belongs to the Giants.

New York leads the division at 3-1-1 in John Harbaugh's first season, even with Jaxson Dart out for the year with a knee injury. Jameis Winston has started since Week 3, and the Giants rallied from 14 points down in the fourth quarter to tie Washington 27-27 on Sunday.

Our model gives New York a 31.1% chance to win the division, more than 10 points above the 20.8% that +380 implies.

Philadelphia is still the most likely winner at 40.0%, but the Eagles are 2-3 after back-to-back losses, Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith both missed that game with hamstring injuries, and they've lost two key offensive linemen in the past week.

NFC North: Minnesota Vikings (+115)

Dimers probability: 51.7% | Fair odds: -107 | Implied probability: 46.5%

Minnesota is 5-0, our model makes the Vikings the division favorite, and the market still has the team at plus money for some of the clearest value on the board.

Brian Flores' defense leads the NFL in points allowed (12.8 per game) and third-down defense, with 17 sacks and 10 takeaways through five games.

The Vikings are already 2-0 in the division, including a 39-22 Week 1 win over Green Bay in which they closed on 29 straight points, so they hold the early tiebreaker and division edge.

The Packers (3-2) also show value after Jordan Love threw, but they just lost Javon Hargrave to a torn Achilles and still have to make up two games and beat the Vikings for a chance to level the tiebreaker.

The Vikings are on a bye this week, and the rematch is set for Nov. 15 in Green Bay.

Bet on NFL futures this season

Futures prices move every week, and so do the Dimers probabilities.

Track every team on the NFL futures page, and use Dimers Pro for weekly NFL best bets, player props, player projections and game lines.

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