NFL Season Betting Preview: Super Bowl LXI predictions and division winner value

The NFL season kicks off with a Patriots vs. Seahawks Super Bowl rematch on Wednesday, September 9, and with less than one week to go, we're digging into Dimers' season-long NFL predictions to find where the best NFL betting value lies before the first whistle.

Between Super Bowl LXI futures and division winner sleepers, you'll find several teams which the Dimers Pro NFL model says are mispriced on the sportsbooks.

Below is everything bettors should know before Week 1 kicks off, including how the Dimers model approaches NFL wagering and the best championship and division futures value on the board.

How Dimers Covers NFL Betting

Dimers uses analytical modeling to produce data-driven NFL predictions for every game on the schedule, all season long.

Instead of being driven by emotions or gut feeling, our model calculates probabilities using various datapoints like team strength, situational factors, injuries, and matchup-specific data.

Before each game, Dimers Pro subscribers can find predictions for:

• NFL Game lines (spreads, totals and moneylines)
• Win probabilities for every team
• Player projections
  
• Touchdown scorer probabilities
• Best bets and player props
• Super Bowl predictions

From Thursday night openers to Sunday's full slate, Dimers becomes a research hub for finding where the market's number and the model's number disagree — and by how much.

Every single insight featured below comes straight from the NFL predictions in Dimers Pro, currently available at a 44% early bird discount with our football season access plan.

Learn more about how to get Dimers Pro at 44% off for this football season.

Super Bowl LXI most likely winners

The five favorites on Dimers' board share one thing in common: every one of them is priced shorter than what our win probability would justify as fair odds.

That's not uncommon with favorites, especially in the NFL, but it's a sharp reminder that value is not always easy to come by in the preseason when the sportsbooks are hesitant to price teams at longer odds.

1. Los Angeles Rams (7.0%, +500)

The Rams had Super Bowl aspirations last year and fell short, entering this year as an absolute Super Bowl-or-bust team entering the twilight of QB Matt Stafford's career.

After trading for reigning DPOY Myles Garrett, the Rams lured Aaron Donald out of retirement and later added Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie via trade, putting together a defense that has them at odds half that of any other team to win a title.

It's an appropriately aggressive roster build following a 12-5 season that ended one win short of the Super Bowl. The problem for bettors is that at odds +500, the market is pricing the Rams closer to a 1-in-6 shot, while Dimers' model has them at 7.0%, a number that would carry a fair price closer to +1330.

This is the widest gap of any team in the top five, and as a surprise to few, the flashiest roster in football is also the worst value.

2. Seattle Seahawks (5.8%, +1200) 

The defending champions won it all by going 14-3 with the league's best defense by DVOA, but they're not running it back unchanged.

Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak left to become the Raiders' head coach, sending HC Mike Macdonald searching for his third OC in as many seasons, and the roster saw a number of key departures in free agency: Riq Woolen, safety Coby Bryant, edge rusher Boye Mafe, and running back Kenneth Walker III.

Dimers' 5.8% title probability works out to a fair price near +1625, so the market's +1200 carries a premium on the reigning champs, but it's a far smaller gap than the Rams.

Those looking to get some value on the Seahawks will find an edge on Seattle a little further down.

3. Buffalo Bills (5.8%, +1000)

Buffalo's 2025 season ended in a gutting 33-30 overtime loss to Denver in the Divisional Round, a defeat that ultimately (inevitably, maybe) cost HC Sean McDermott his job after nine seasons.

The new-look Bills wasted no time reshaping the offense around Josh Allen, trading for Bears wide receiver DJ Moore, who gets the best QB he's ever played for.

Dimers rates Buffalo dead even with Seattle at 5.8% to win it all, yet the market prices the Bills a bit shorter at +1000 versus the Seahawks' +1200.

Josh Allen is arguably the best offensive player in the NFL and the Bills' odds are better than they were before last season, but it's unlikely bettors will find much of an edge on them at this stage of the season.

4. Baltimore Ravens (5.5%, +1300)

Baltimore's season seemed like it would end better than it began at 1-5, but they finished with effectively the same fate, missing the playoffs on the final week of the year.

The response was a full reset: Jesse Minter takes over as head coach after John Harbaugh's exit, the Ravens signed edge rusher Trey Hendrickson after missing out on Maxx Crosby, and they rebuilt the offensive line with veterans John Simpson and Ethan Pocic alongside first-round guard Vega Ioane.

Like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson has as much offensive upside as any player in the league and will likely win them some games on his own, but with fair odds of +1720, they won't carry any preseason betting value.

5. Kansas City Chiefs (5.3%, +1700)

Of the top five, Kansas City is the only team priced close to what its probability actually justifies, 5.3% works out to fair odds of +1790, just a shade shorter than the market's +1700.

The longest preseason odds on the Chiefs in years comes off the heels of their first losing season under Mahomes and Reid. and the Dimers model is giving them more confidence than it does to the other teams in the top five.

A three-year deal for former Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III might not be a complete gamechanger, but it should give them a much needed improvement in the backfield after cobbling together the shells of Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco last season.

If Mahomes' injury recovery holds, this is the one top-five team the market isn't drastically overcharging for.

Super Bowl LXI best value bets

Here are the strongest value bets to win the Super Bowl based on Dimers' projections vs. sportsbook pricing.

Unlike the teams above, all three sit outside the top five in probability, with our highest of them all ranking 8th in our overall Super Bowl win probabilities.

Chicago Bears (+2700)

Dimers title probability: 4.7%

Fair betting odds: +2030

Ben Johnson's first season in Chicago produced the Bears' best record since 2018, an 11-6 mark and an NFC North title, punctuated by a Wild Card comeback over Green Bay before a respectable overtime Divisional Round exit against the eventual NFC runner-up Rams.

The Bears traded DJ Moore to Buffalo for a second-round pick, clearing the runway for Luther Burden and Colston Loveland's development, and added linebacker Devin Bush and first-round safety Dillon Thieneman to shore up a defense that lost Kevin Byard and Jaquan Brisker.

Coming off a genuine breakthrough season with the market still pricing them as a longshot, Chicago is the top value play among last year's playoff teams.

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Jacksonville Jaguars (+3000)

Dimers title probability: 3.6%

Fair betting odds: +2680

Jacksonville won the AFC South at 13-4 on the back of an eight-game winning streak, only to lose a home Wild Card game to Buffalo.

Trevor Lawrence was the story down the stretch, grading out as the league's top passer from Week 13 on and the Jaguars' offseason response was almost defiantly quiet, adding rotational pieces rather than chasing splashy names, even parting ways with RB Travis Etienne Jr. in free agency, betting on a committee between returning RB Bhayshul Tuten and offseason acquisition Chris Rodriguez Jr.

A reigning division champion with a quarterback who has top-five passing upside shouldn't be such a longshot according to our model.

Division winner value bets

For some smaller stakes but higher probabilities, we can turn to the individual division winners for some value.

We've focused on three below. There are more to be found in our NFL futures predictions, but several of them come with a probability under 10%, so we've focused on the teams with the strongest chance.

AFC South: Jaguars (+245)

Back to the Jags again.

 Houston is our model's highest probability pick to win the AFC South at 43.5% and +125, where they are priced almost exactly it should be (fair value is close to +130), so not a bad bet, just not a value one.

The better play sits one spot down with Jacksonville's 30.7% probability, and at +245 it pays out more than the roughly +225 fair odds.

After a 13-4 division-winning season and a Trevor Lawrence who played like a top-five quarterback for the season's final two months, the defending AFC South champions are being priced more like an afterthought in this division than a co-favorite, exactly the gap that our futures model is built to find.

NFC East: Commanders (+600)

Philadelphia is still the team to beat after last season at a 45.5% win probability in the NFC East, while Dallas is the next-most-likely team in the market at 24.5% and +205, but that price is asking bettors to pay up for a team whose defense finished dead last in the NFL in 2025.

That leaves Washington as the value team in the division, sitting at 16.6% and +600 odds. Some might write write off Washington after a 5-12 collapse, but with Jayden Daniels healthy, our model gives the Commanders real upside with a fair price closer to +500.

NFC West: Seahawks (+230)

We told you there was some value on the Seahawks if you waited a bit.

Dimers has Seattle and Los Angeles separated by just 0.6% in the NFC West: 38.6% for the Seahawks against 39.2% for the Rams.

However, the books don't see it that way at all. Seattle is priced at +230, which implies only about a 30.3% chance (fair value per Dimers would be closer to +160), while the Rams, fresh off adding Aaron Donald, Myles Garrett, and Trent McDuffie to a roster that already reached the NFC Championship Game, are priced as an outright minus-money favorite.

Two teams the model rates as nearly identical are being priced as if one is a clear favorite and the other a live underdog, and that's the perfect encapsulation of betting value.

Learn more about how to get Dimers Pro at 44% off for this football season.