Buccaneers vs. Cowboys prediction favors Dallas to win TNF Week 5 [2026]

Since our Buccaneers-Cowboys predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Thursday's NFL matchup between the Buccaneers and Cowboys, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Cowboys a 79.2% chance of defeating the Buccaneers in Week 5 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Cowboys winning 28-19.

Key factors favoring the Cowboys:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Situation
• Dallas Cowboys Team Rating
• Dallas Cowboys Offense

According to our model, the Cowboys (-7.5) have a 54.5% chance of covering the spread, while the 48.5-point over/under has a 51.0% chance of staying under.

The main contributing factors to the under being more likely are:

• QB Rating
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pace

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 5 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Buccaneers +7.5 (+106) / Cowboys -7.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Buccaneers +400, Cowboys -413
• Total: Over/Under 48.5 (+104/-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Cowboys -7.5 @ 52¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Buccaneers @ 20¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 48.5 @ 49¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Cowboys -7.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Buccaneers vs. Cowboys?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for TNF, Javonte Williams is most likely to score an anytime TD in Buccaneers vs. Cowboys.

Our projections give Williams a 63.9% chance of scoring a TD at AT&T Stadium, while the running back is a 17.7% chance of registering the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Bucky Irving (RB): 32.3% probability
• Emeka Egbuka (WR): 25.1%
• Kenny Gainwell (RB): 23.1%
• Chris Godwin (WR): 19.9%
• Jalon Daniels (QB): 19.8%

Dallas Cowboys

• Javonte Williams (RB): 63.9% prob.
• CeeDee Lamb (WR): 46.2%
• George Pickens (WR): 35.7%
• Jake Ferguson (TE): 29.5%
• Ryan Flournoy (WR): 21.7%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Bucky Irving (RB): 6.9% prob.
• Emeka Egbuka (WR): 5.1%
• Kenny Gainwell (RB): 4.6%
• Chris Godwin (WR): 3.9%
• Jalon Daniels (QB): 3.9%

Dallas Cowboys

• Javonte Williams (RB): 17.7% prob.
• CeeDee Lamb (WR): 10.8%
• George Pickens (WR): 7.7%
• Jake Ferguson (TE): 6.1%
• Ryan Flournoy (WR): 4.2%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Buccaneers and Cowboys. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 5 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Buccaneers' Jalon Daniels is projected to have a quiet game with 189 passing yards, while the Cowboys' Dak Prescott is expected to throw for a whopping 269 yards.

Buccaneers rushing

• Bucky Irving: 57 yds
• Jalon Daniels: 41 yds
• Kenny Gainwell: 22 yds

Cowboys rushing

• Javonte Williams: 74 yds
• Tyler Goodson: 19 yds
• Dak Prescott: 12 yds

Buccaneers receiving

• Emeka Egbuka: 41 yds
• Chris Godwin: 37 yds
• Cade Otton: 34 yds
• Ted Hurst: 28 yds
• Tez Johnson: 20 yds

Cowboys receiving

• CeeDee Lamb: 86 yds
• George Pickens: 66 yds
• Ryan Flournoy: 38 yds
• Jake Ferguson: 33 yds
• Javonte Williams: 19 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 5 matchup between the Cowboys and Buccaneers at AT&T Stadium is scheduled to commence at 8:15 PM ET.

• Who: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys
• Date: Thursday, October 8, 2026
• Time: 8:15 PM ET/5:15PM PT
• Venue: AT&T Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Cowboys, with a 79.2% win probability, will likely beat the Buccaneers in Week 5 of the NFL season.

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This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.