NFL picks straight up: Week 5, 2026

At Dimers, our Week 5 NFL picks are grounded in data-driven insight, with straight-up picks for all 15 games informed by our latest NFL predictions.

Gain the edge in your NFL pick 'em contests via our data-driven NFL Week 5 picks straight up, powered by thousands of game simulations.

Week 5 of the NFL season begins with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers facing the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night and ends with the Buffalo Bills taking on the Los Angeles Rams on Monday.

NFL picks this week straight up: Week 5, 2026

Listed below are our Week 5 NFL picks highlighting how likely each team is to win their game this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys

The Buccaneers kick off Week 5 against the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on Thursday night. According to our model, the Cowboys have a 79% chance of winning, while the Buccaneers have a 21% chance.

For Week 5's opening game, our model highlights NFL player projections, with Bucky Irving (RB) the most likely player from the Buccaneers to score the first TD at 7.3%, while Javonte Williams (RB) is the top candidate from the Cowboys at 20.7%.

Check out our full Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys prediction ahead of this week's matchup at AT&T Stadium, set for Thursday, October 8 at 8:15pm. All times stated in this article are in Eastern Standard Time (EST).

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

For this week's game between the Eagles and the Jaguars, Jacksonville is more likely to win. Our prediction model gives the Jaguars a 73% chance of winning. On the other hand, there is a 27% chance that the Eagles will pull off an upset win.

Explore the latest data in this week's Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars prediction before kickoff in Jacksonvilleon Sunday at 9:30am.

As the first week of byes hit, track the top teams with our updated NFL futures, highlighting top Super Bowl contenders.

Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets

We are picking the Jets to win their game against the Browns this week, with our trusted NFL model projecting a 60% win probability for the home team. The Browns have a 40% chance of winning at MetLife Stadium.

For betting purposes, the Jets are listed as -2 favorites, with the Browns' moneyline at +110.

Find the complete Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets prediction for a closer look at Sunday's 1:00pm game.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins

According to our predictive analytics model, the Bengals are the team to beat in this game, with their win probability at 75%. The Dolphins, on the other hand, have a 25% chance of winning.

Review the edges and numbers in our Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins prediction for this Sunday 1:00pm clash at Hard Rock Stadium.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. New England Patriots

The Patriots have a 66% chance of winning on Sunday afternoon, compared to the Raiders' 34% chance of victory. This makes the New England Patriots our pick to win at Gillette Stadium.

See the numbers behind this matchup in the full Las Vegas Raiders vs. New England Patriots prediction scheduled for Sunday at 1:00pm at Gillette Stadium.

Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints

The Vikings are favored to win their Week 5 matchup, with our predictive analytics model giving them a 57% chance, while the Saints enter the weekend with a 43% chance of winning at Caesars Superdome.

When it comes to betting on this game, the Vikings' moneyline odds are set at -130, with the home team Saints listed as +2 underdogs.

This week's Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints prediction highlights the top values for the game at Caesars Superdome on Sunday, October 11 at 1:00pm.

Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans

After 10,000 simulations of Texans vs. Titans this Sunday, our model projects the Texans as the more likely winners with a probability of 72%. Their opponents, the Titans, have a 28% chance of getting the win at home.

Compare projections and odds for this matchup in our Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans prediction, set for Sunday at 1:00pm.

New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders

Our model is picking the Commanders, who have a 63% chance of winning the game, while the Giants have a 37% win probability.

Access the full data breakdown in our New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders prediction ahead of kickoff at Northwest Stadium.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The next game of Week 5 sees the Colts take on the Steelers at Acrisure Stadium.

We predict the Steelers to win with a probability of 57%, while the Colts are projected to have a win chance of 43%.

As for the Vegas betting odds here, the Steelers are listed as -2.5 favorites, with the Colts' moneyline odds posted at +120.

Breakdown further probabilities and player projections in the Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers prediction for Sunday, October 11 at 1:00pm.

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers

The likely winner of this matchup is the Bears, who have a projected win chance of 56%, according to DimersBOT. On the other side of this matchup, the Packers have a projected win probability of 44%.

Check out our Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers prediction to see where the rest of the numbers lean ahead of Sunday's game in Green Bay.

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers

We have run our powerful NFL model over this week’s Broncos-Chargers clash 10,000 times, with the Broncos coming out as the team to pick. Of those 10,000 simulations, the Broncos won 6,307 times, with the Chargers winning on 3,693 occasions.

Get direct access to more game projections with our Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers prediction before Sunday's clash at SoFi Stadium

Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals

Next up is the game between the Lions and Cardinals, with our model projecting the road team as the more likely victor, with the Lions rated as having a 67% chance of getting the W. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are projected to have a 33% chance of winning.

For those interested in betting on this matchup, the oddsmakers have the Lions' moneyline odds set at -218 for this road game, while the hosting Cardinals are listed as +4.5 underdogs.

Examine further probabilities in the full Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals prediction, scheduled for Sunday at 4:25pm.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks

Our next straight up pick this week is for the Seahawks to get the win against the 49ers. After running 10,000 simulations of this matchup, the Seattle have a win probability of 59%, with the 49ers at 41%.

View the complete San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks prediction for a deeper look at this Sunday's game in Seattle.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons

With a win probability of 60% on Sunday night, our straight up pick for this matchup is the Falcons, while their opponent, the Ravens, have a projected win chance of 40%.

Check out the latest projections in this week's Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons prediction before kickoff on Sunday, October 11 at 8:20pm.

Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams

The team to pick here is the Rams, who have a 61% chance of winning their matchup against the Bills this Sunday night.

Looking at the betting odds for this Monday Night Football clash, the Rams are listed as -2.5 favorites at home, with the Bills' moneyline odds available at +128.

Find all game probabilities and odds in the full Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams prediction for Monday's matchup at SoFi Stadium.

Full list of NFL Week 5 picks straight up

This week's most likely NFL winners, ordered by probability:

• Cowboys 79.2% vs. Buccaneers
• Bengals 75.3% @ Dolphins
• Jaguars 72.6% vs. Eagles
• Texans 72.0% @ Titans
• Lions 66.5% @ Cardinals
• Patriots 65.8% vs. Raiders
• Broncos 63.1% @ Chargers
• Commanders 62.8% vs. Giants
• Rams 60.5% vs. Bills
• Jets 60.2% vs. Browns
• Falcons 60.0% vs. Ravens
• Seahawks 58.6% vs. 49ers
• Steelers 57.3% vs. Colts
• Vikings 56.9% @ Saints
• Bears 56.2% @ Packers

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NFL straight up picks and predictions for Week 5

The NFL Week 5 predictions straight up in this article are accurate at the time of publication but may change.

Dimers.com is the best site for NFL predictions, with our straight up picks trusted by football fans across the country.

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Please note that all NFL odds and probabilities mentioned on this page are subject to change.