Seahawks vs. Commanders prediction: Why Seattle is favored to win in NFL Week 3 [2026]

Since our Seahawks-Commanders predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Seahawks and Commanders, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Seahawks a 74.9% chance of beating the Commanders in Week 3 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Seahawks winning 24-16.

Key factors favoring the Seahawks:

• Seattle Seahawks Power Rankings
• Washington Commanders QB Change / Form
• Seattle Seahawks Offensive Efficiency

According to our model, the Commanders (+8.5) have a 51.8% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 39.5 points has a 55.3% chance of going over.

The main contributing factors to the over being more likely are:

• Seattle Seahawks Form
• Washington Commanders Defensive Efficiency

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 3 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Seahawks -8.5 (+100) / Commanders +8.5 (-102)
• Moneyline: Seahawks -344, Commanders +335
• Total: Over/Under 39.5 (-108/+104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Commanders +8.5 @ 50¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Commanders @ 23¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 39.5 @ 52¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 39.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Seahawks vs. Commanders TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Seahawks vs. Commanders?

According to our model, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Seahawks vs. Commanders.

Our projections give Smith-Njigba a 48.6% chance of scoring a TD at Northwest Stadium, while the wide receiver is a 13.1% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Seattle Seahawks

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR): 48.6% probability
• Jadarian Price (RB): 33.7%
• AJ Barner (TE): 24.9%
• Emanuel Wilson (RB): 24.0%
• Rashid Shaheed (WR): 22.0%

Washington Commanders

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB): 33.1% prob.
• Terry McLaurin (WR): 19.9%
• Stefon Diggs (WR): 19.2%
• Rachaad White (RB): 17.1%
• Marcus Mariota (QB): 13.3%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Seattle Seahawks

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR): 13.1% prob.
• Jadarian Price (RB): 8.1%
• AJ Barner (TE): 5.6%
• Emanuel Wilson (RB): 5.4%
• Rashid Shaheed (WR): 4.9%

Washington Commanders

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB): 9.1% prob.
• Terry McLaurin (WR): 5.0%
• Stefon Diggs (WR): 4.8%
• Rachaad White (RB): 4.3%
• Marcus Mariota (QB): 3.2%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Seahawks and Commanders. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 3 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Seahawks' Sam Darnold is projected for 221 passing yards, while the Commanders' Marcus Mariota is expected to throw for just 185 yards.

Seahawks rushing

• Jadarian Price: 58 yds
• Emanuel Wilson: 34 yds
• George Holani: 18 yds

Commanders rushing

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 41 yds
• Marcus Mariota: 30 yds
• Rachaad White: 23 yds

Seahawks receiving

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 92 yds
• Rashid Shaheed: 35 yds
• Cooper Kupp: 28 yds
• AJ Barner: 26 yds
• Jadarian Price: 13 yds

Commanders receiving

• Terry McLaurin: 47 yds
• Stefon Diggs: 41 yds
• Antonio Williams: 21 yds
• Rachaad White: 18 yds
• Dyami Brown: 15 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 3 game between the Commanders and Seahawks at Northwest Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Commanders
• Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Northwest Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Seahawks, with a 74.9% win probability, will likely beat the Commanders in Week 3 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.