Patriots vs. Jaguars prediction favors Jacksonville to win in NFL Week 3 [2026]

Since our Patriots-Jaguars predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Patriots and Jaguars, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Jaguars a 59.6% chance of defeating the Patriots in Week 3 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Jaguars winning 24-21.

Key factors favoring the Jaguars:

• Jacksonville Jaguars QB Change / Form
• Jacksonville Jaguars Offensive Efficiency
• Jacksonville Jaguars Power Rankings

According to our model, the oddsmakers have got it right, and the Patriots and Jaguars each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 46.5 points has a 51.3% chance of staying under.

The main contributing factors to the under being more likely are:

• Weather / Conditions
• New England Patriots Pace

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 3 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Patriots +2.5 (+113) / Jaguars -2.5 (-117)
• Moneyline: Patriots +141, Jaguars -144
• Total: Over/Under 46.5 (+104/-104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Patriots +2.5 @ 47¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Jaguars @ 59¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 46.5 @ 51¢ via Polymarket

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Patriots +2.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Patriots vs. Jaguars TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Patriots vs. Jaguars?

According to our model, Bhayshul Tuten is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Patriots vs. Jaguars.

Our projections give Tuten a 39.2% chance of getting in for six at EverBank Stadium, while the running back is a 9.1% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

New England Patriots

• TreVeyon Henderson (RB): 37.5% probability
• Rhamondre Stevenson (RB): 35.0%
• Hunter Henry (TE): 25.2%
• Drake Maye (QB): 22.5%
• Romeo Doubs (WR): 21.5%

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Bhayshul Tuten (RB): 39.2% prob.
• Parker Washington (WR): 34.2%
• Chris Rodriguez (RB): 24.5%
• Trevor Lawrence (QB): 24.0%
• Brenton Strange (TE): 22.4%

First touchdown scorer predictions

New England Patriots

• TreVeyon Henderson (RB): 8.2% prob.
• Rhamondre Stevenson (RB): 7.5%
• Hunter Henry (TE): 5.1%
• Drake Maye (QB): 4.4%
• Romeo Doubs (WR): 4.2%

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Bhayshul Tuten (RB): 9.1% prob.
• Parker Washington (WR): 7.7%
• Chris Rodriguez (RB): 5.1%
• Trevor Lawrence (QB): 5.0%
• Brenton Strange (TE): 4.7%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Patriots and Jaguars. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 3 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Patriots' Drake Maye is projected for 227 passing yards. The Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence is expected to throw for 238 yards.

Patriots rushing

• TreVeyon Henderson: 45 yds
• Rhamondre Stevenson: 37 yds
• Drake Maye: 30 yds

Jaguars rushing

• Bhayshul Tuten: 56 yds
• Chris Rodriguez: 23 yds
• Trevor Lawrence: 21 yds

Patriots receiving

• Romeo Doubs: 47 yds
• Hunter Henry: 44 yds
• Mack Hollins: 40 yds
• DeMario Douglas: 36 yds
• Rhamondre Stevenson: 19 yds

Jaguars receiving

• Parker Washington: 71 yds
• Brian Thomas: 42 yds
• Jakobi Meyers: 41 yds
• Brenton Strange: 34 yds
• Bhayshul Tuten: 13 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 3 action between the Jaguars and Patriots at EverBank Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
• Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: EverBank Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Jaguars, with a 59.6% win probability, will likely beat the Patriots in Week 3 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.