Vikings vs. Saints prediction favors Minnesota to win in NFL Week 5 [2026]

Since our Vikings-Saints predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Vikings and Saints, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Vikings a 59.4% chance of beating the Saints in Week 5 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Vikings winning 23-20.

Key factors favoring the Vikings:

• Vikings QB situation
• Vikings team rating
• Saints offense

According to our model, the Vikings (-1.5) have a 53.9% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 41.5 points has a 55.2% chance of going over.

The main contributing factors to the over being more likely are:

• Playing conditions
• QB ratings

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 5 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Vikings -1.5 (-108) / Saints +1.5 (+104)
• Moneyline: Vikings -125, Saints +122
• Total: Over/Under 41.5 (+100/-102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Vikings -1.5 @ 52¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Vikings @ 56¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 41.5 @ 50¢ via Novig

According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 41.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Vikings vs. Saints TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Vikings vs. Saints?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 5, Aaron Jones is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Vikings vs. Saints.

Our projections give Jones a 44.2% chance of getting in for six at Caesars Superdome, while the running back is a 12.2% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Minnesota Vikings

• Aaron Jones (RB): 44.2% probability
• Justin Jefferson (WR): 38.2%
• Jordan Addison (WR): 26.9%
• T.J. Hockenson (TE): 24.9%
• Kyler Murray (QB): 22.2%

New Orleans Saints

• Alvin Kamara (RB): 32.9% prob.
• Chris Olave (WR): 32.8%
• Juwan Johnson (TE): 23.3%
• Kendre Miller (RB): 22.8%
• Devaughn Vele (WR): 19.4%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Minnesota Vikings

• Aaron Jones (RB): 12.2% prob.
• Justin Jefferson (WR): 10.1%
• Jordan Addison (WR): 6.6%
• T.J. Hockenson (TE): 6.0%
• Kyler Murray (QB): 5.2%

New Orleans Saints

• Alvin Kamara (RB): 8.3% prob.
• Chris Olave (WR): 8.3%
• Juwan Johnson (TE): 5.5%
• Kendre Miller (RB): 5.4%
• Devaughn Vele (WR): 4.5%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Vikings and Saints. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 5 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Vikings' Kyler Murray is projected for 213 passing yards, while the Saints' Tyler Shough is expected to throw for 246 yards.

Vikings rushing

• Aaron Jones: 74 yds
• Kyler Murray: 30 yds
• Demond Claiborne: 13 yds

Saints rushing

• Alvin Kamara: 37 yds
• Kendre Miller: 25 yds
• Tyler Shough: 16 yds

Vikings receiving

• Justin Jefferson: 80 yds
• Jordan Addison: 45 yds
• T.J. Hockenson: 41 yds
• Aaron Jones: 21 yds
• Jauan Jennings: 13 yds

Saints receiving

• Chris Olave: 84 yds
• Devaughn Vele: 46 yds
• Juwan Johnson: 44 yds
• Alvin Kamara: 20 yds
• Noah Fant: 18 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 5 matchup between the Saints and Vikings at Caesars Superdome is scheduled to commence at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints
• Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Caesars Superdome

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Conclusion

We predict the Vikings, with a 59.4% win probability, will likely beat the Saints in Week 5 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.