Colts vs. Steelers prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win in NFL Week 5 [2026]

Since our Colts-Steelers predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Colts and Steelers, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Steelers a 58.1% chance of beating the Colts in Week 5 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Steelers winning 21-19.

Key factors favoring the Steelers:

• Steelers team rating
• Steelers home-field advantage
• Colts defense

According to our model, the Colts (+2.5) have a 51.9% chance of covering the spread, while the 42.5-point over/under has a 54.9% chance of staying under.

The main contributing factors to the under being more likely are:

• Playing conditions
• Steelers recent performance

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 5 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Colts +2.5 (+113) / Steelers -2.5 (-114)
• Moneyline: Colts +138, Steelers -142
• Total: Over/Under 42.5 (-117/+113)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Colts +2.5 @ 47¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Colts @ 42¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 42.5 @ 47¢ via Polymarket

According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 42.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Colts vs. Steelers TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Colts vs. Steelers?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 5, Jonathan Taylor is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Colts vs. Steelers.

Our projections give Taylor a 59.2% chance of scoring a TD at Acrisure Stadium, while the running back is a 17.2% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Indianapolis Colts

• Jonathan Taylor (RB): 59.2% probability
• Tyler Warren (TE): 27.7%
• Josh Downs (WR): 24.5%
• Keenan Allen (WR): 17.8%
• Laquon Treadwell (WR): 13.2%

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Jaylen Warren (RB): 44.8% prob.
• DK Metcalf (WR): 34.5%
• Rico Dowdle (RB): 34.4%
• Roman Wilson (WR): 26.3%
• Pat Freiermuth (TE): 22.3%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Indianapolis Colts

• Jonathan Taylor (RB): 17.2% prob.
• Tyler Warren (TE): 6.2%
• Josh Downs (WR): 5.4%
• Keenan Allen (WR): 3.8%
• Laquon Treadwell (WR): 2.7%

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Jaylen Warren (RB): 11.1% prob.
• DK Metcalf (WR): 7.9%
• Rico Dowdle (RB): 7.9%
• Roman Wilson (WR): 5.7%
• Pat Freiermuth (TE): 4.7%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Colts and Steelers. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 5 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Colts' Daniel Jones is projected for 214 passing yards, while the Steelers' Aaron Rodgers is expected to throw for 234 yards.

Colts rushing

• Jonathan Taylor: 87 yds
• Seth McGowan: 16 yds
• Daniel Jones: 13 yds

Steelers rushing

• Jaylen Warren: 72 yds
• Rico Dowdle: 43 yds
• Aaron Rodgers: 5 yds

Colts receiving

• Josh Downs: 60 yds
• Tyler Warren: 47 yds
• Keenan Allen: 37 yds
• Laquon Treadwell: 23 yds
• Jonathan Taylor: 19 yds

Steelers receiving

• DK Metcalf: 58 yds
• Roman Wilson: 46 yds
• Pat Freiermuth: 33 yds
• Germie Bernard: 27 yds
• Darnell Washington: 26 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 5 game between the Steelers and Colts at Acrisure Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
• Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Acrisure Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Steelers, with a 58.1% win probability, will likely beat the Colts in Week 5 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.