Texans vs. Titans prediction: Why Houston is favored to win in NFL Week 5 [2026]

Since our Texans-Titans predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Texans and Titans, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Texans a 72.7% chance of beating the Titans in Week 5 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Texans winning 22-15.

Key factors favoring the Texans:

• Titans offense
• Texans team rating
• Titans defense

According to our model, the Texans (-6.5) have a 53.2% chance of covering the spread, while the 38.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 5 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Texans -6.5 (-115) / Titans +6.5 (+117)
• Moneyline: Texans -308, Titans +300
• Total: Over/Under 38.5 (+108/-113)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Titans +6.5 @ 46¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Titans @ +300 via hard_rock
• Total: Over 38.5 @ 48¢ via Polymarket

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Titans to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Texans vs. Titans TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Texans vs. Titans?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 5, David Montgomery is most likely to score an anytime TD in Texans vs. Titans.

Our projections give Montgomery a 46.7% chance of scoring a TD at Nissan Stadium, while the running back is a 12.8% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Houston Texans

• David Montgomery (RB): 46.7% probability
• Nico Collins (WR): 39.1%
• Woody Marks (RB): 30.9%
• Dalton Schultz (TE): 19.8%
• Jaylin Noel (WR): 15.1%

Tennessee Titans

• Tony Pollard (RB): 27.8% prob.
• Carnell Tate (WR): 18.2%
• Wan'Dale Robinson (WR): 17.5%
• Tyjae Spears (RB): 14.8%
• Cam Ward (QB): 14.5%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Houston Texans

• David Montgomery (RB): 12.8% prob.
• Nico Collins (WR): 10.1%
• Woody Marks (RB): 7.5%
• Dalton Schultz (TE): 4.5%
• Jaylin Noel (WR): 3.3%

Tennessee Titans

• Tony Pollard (RB): 7.9% prob.
• Carnell Tate (WR): 4.8%
• Wan'Dale Robinson (WR): 4.6%
• Tyjae Spears (RB): 3.8%
• Cam Ward (QB): 3.8%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Texans and Titans. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 5 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Texans' C.J. Stroud is projected for 240 passing yards. The Titans' Cam Ward is expected to throw for 195 yards.

Texans rushing

• David Montgomery: 48 yds
• Woody Marks: 39 yds
• C.J. Stroud: 13 yds

Titans rushing

• Tony Pollard: 51 yds
• Tyjae Spears: 17 yds
• Cam Ward: 14 yds

Texans receiving

• Nico Collins: 79 yds
• Dalton Schultz: 39 yds
• Kayshon Boutte: 32 yds
• Jaylin Noel: 27 yds
• Xavier Hutchinson: 21 yds

Titans receiving

• Carnell Tate: 53 yds
• Wan'Dale Robinson: 39 yds
• Elic Ayomanor: 22 yds
• Gunnar Helm: 21 yds
• Calvin Ridley: 14 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 5 matchup between the Titans and Texans at Nissan Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
• Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Nissan Stadium

NFL Week 5 promo

Make the most of Dimers' Texans vs. Titans predictions by exploring the below DraftKings Predicts offer:

Conclusion

We predict the Texans, with a 72.7% win probability, will likely beat the Titans in Week 5 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.