Texans vs. Colts prediction: Why Houston is favored to win in NFL Week 3 [2026]

Since our Texans-Colts predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Texans and Colts, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Texans a 53.6% chance of defeating the Colts in Week 3 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Texans winning 22-21.

Key factors favoring the Texans:

• Houston Texans Defensive Efficiency
• Indianapolis Colts Defensive Efficiency
• Indianapolis Colts Form

According to our model, the Colts (+1.5) have a 51.9% chance of covering the spread, while the 42.5-point over/under has a 53.9% chance of going over.

The main contributing factors to the over being more likely are:

• Weather / Conditions
• Indianapolis Colts Defensive Efficiency

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 3 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Texans -1.5 (+100) / Colts +1.5 (-102)
• Moneyline: Texans -113, Colts +113
• Total: Over/Under 42.5 (+104/-106)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Colts +1.5 @ -102 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Texans @ 53¢ via Polymarket
• Total: Over 42.5 @ 49¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 42.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Texans vs. Colts TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Texans vs. Colts?

According to our model, Jonathan Taylor is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Texans vs. Colts.

Our projections give Taylor a 58.1% chance of getting in for six at Lucas Oil Stadium, while the running back is a 16.8% chance of registering the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Houston Texans

• David Montgomery (RB): 52.1% probability
• Dalton Schultz (TE): 25.5%
• Woody Marks (RB): 24.2%
• Kayshon Boutte (WR): 21.6%
• Xavier Hutchinson (WR): 17.3%

Indianapolis Colts

• Jonathan Taylor (RB): 58.1% prob.
• Tyler Warren (TE): 26.6%
• Josh Downs (WR): 24.3%
• Keenan Allen (WR): 16.8%
• Daniel Jones (QB): 12.9%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Houston Texans

• David Montgomery (RB): 14.3% prob.
• Dalton Schultz (TE): 5.7%
• Woody Marks (RB): 5.4%
• Kayshon Boutte (WR): 4.7%
• Xavier Hutchinson (WR): 3.7%

Indianapolis Colts

• Jonathan Taylor (RB): 16.8% prob.
• Tyler Warren (TE): 6.0%
• Josh Downs (WR): 5.4%
• Keenan Allen (WR): 3.6%
• Daniel Jones (QB): 2.7%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Texans and Colts. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 3 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Texans' C.J. Stroud is projected for 239 passing yards, while the Colts' Daniel Jones is expected to throw for 216 yards.

Texans rushing

• David Montgomery: 53 yds
• Woody Marks: 34 yds
• C.J. Stroud: 14 yds

Colts rushing

• Jonathan Taylor: 83 yds
• Daniel Jones: 14 yds
• Seth McGowan: 8 yds

Texans receiving

• Dalton Schultz: 52 yds
• Xavier Hutchinson: 44 yds
• Kayshon Boutte: 42 yds
• Jaylin Noel: 34 yds
• Jared Wayne: 22 yds

Colts receiving

• Josh Downs: 55 yds
• Tyler Warren: 46 yds
• Keenan Allen: 39 yds
• Jonathan Taylor: 23 yds
• Laquon Treadwell: 23 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 3 matchup between the Colts and Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
• Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Texans, with a 53.6% win probability, will likely beat the Colts in Week 3 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.