Bengals vs. Dolphins prediction: Why Cincinnati is favored to win in NFL Week 5 [2026]

Since our Bengals-Dolphins predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Bengals and Dolphins, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Bengals a 74.3% chance of defeating the Dolphins in Week 5 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bengals winning 25-17.

Key factors favoring the Bengals:

• Bengals QB situation
• Dolphins offense
• Bengals offense

According to our model, the Bengals (-6.5) have a 56.4% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 44.5 points has a 53.2% chance of staying under.

The main contributing factors to the under being more likely are:

• Dolphins recent performance
• Playing conditions

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 5 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Bengals -6.5 (-115) / Dolphins +6.5 (+113)
• Moneyline: Bengals -308, Dolphins +300
• Total: Over/Under 44.5 (+104/-106)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Bengals -6.5 @ 53¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Dolphins @ 25¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 44.5 @ 51¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Bengals -6.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Bengals vs. Dolphins TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Bengals vs. Dolphins?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 5, Chase Brown is most likely to score an anytime TD in Bengals vs. Dolphins.

Our projections give Brown a 52.8% chance of getting in for six at Hard Rock Stadium, while the running back is a 13.2% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Cincinnati Bengals

• Chase Brown (RB): 52.8% probability
• Ja'Marr Chase (WR): 47.7%
• Tee Higgins (WR): 38.0%
• Mike Gesicki (TE): 23.3%
• Samaje Perine (RB): 18.6%

Miami Dolphins

• Ollie Gordon (RB): 39.8% prob.
• Malik Willis (QB): 23.5%
• Malik Washington (WR): 22.8%
• Jaylen Wright (RB): 22.7%
• Chris Bell (WR): 16.6%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Cincinnati Bengals

• Chase Brown (RB): 13.2% prob.
• Ja'Marr Chase (WR): 11.4%
• Tee Higgins (WR): 8.4%
• Mike Gesicki (TE): 4.6%
• Samaje Perine (RB): 3.6%

Miami Dolphins

• Ollie Gordon (RB): 10.7% prob.
• Malik Willis (QB): 5.7%
• Malik Washington (WR): 5.5%
• Jaylen Wright (RB): 5.4%
• Chris Bell (WR): 3.8%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Bengals and Dolphins. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 5 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bengals' Joe Burrow is projected to have a big game with 261 passing yards, while the Dolphins' Malik Willis is expected to throw for 204 yards.

Bengals rushing

• Chase Brown: 74 yds
• Samaje Perine: 20 yds
• Joe Burrow: 12 yds

Dolphins rushing

• Ollie Gordon: 44 yds
• Malik Willis: 34 yds
• Jaylen Wright: 25 yds

Bengals receiving

• Ja'Marr Chase: 80 yds
• Tee Higgins: 66 yds
• Mike Gesicki: 35 yds
• Chase Brown: 25 yds
• Dohnte Meyers: 13 yds

Dolphins receiving

• Malik Washington: 52 yds
• Chris Bell: 40 yds
• Greg Dulcich: 30 yds
• Kevin Coleman: 25 yds
• Ollie Gordon: 13 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 5 matchup between the Dolphins and Bengals at Hard Rock Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins
• Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium

NFL Week 5 promo

Make the most of Dimers' Bengals vs. Dolphins predictions by exploring the code "DIMERS" with Polymarket:

Conclusion

We predict the Bengals, with a 74.3% win probability, will likely beat the Dolphins in Week 5 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.