Bills vs. Rams prediction favors Rams to win MNF Week 5 [2026]

Since our Bills-Rams predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Monday's NFL matchup between the Bills and Rams, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Rams a 63.8% chance of beating the Bills in Week 5 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Rams winning 28-24.

Key factors favoring the Rams:

• Rams offense
• Rams team rating
• Bills QB situation

According to our model, the Rams (-3.5) have a 51.3% chance of covering the spread, while the 54.5-point over/under has a 53.5% chance of staying under.

The main contributing factors to the under being more likely are:

• QB ratings
• Bills pace

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 5 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Bills +3.5 (-113) / Rams -3.5 (+113)
• Moneyline: Bills +160, Rams -163
• Total: Over/Under 54.5 (+104/-102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Rams -3.5 @ 47¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Rams @ 62¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 54.5 @ -102 via DraftKings

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Rams -3.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Bills vs. Rams TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Bills vs. Rams?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for MNF, Kyren Williams is most likely to score an anytime TD in Bills vs. Rams.

Our projections give Williams a 58.6% chance of scoring a TD at SoFi Stadium, while the running back is a 13.1% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Buffalo Bills

• Josh Allen (QB): 51.2% probability
• James Cook (RB): 47.8%
• DJ Moore (WR): 32.3%
• Dalton Kincaid (TE): 27.8%
• Keon Coleman (WR): 23.1%

Los Angeles Rams

• Kyren Williams (RB): 58.6% prob.
• Puka Nacua (WR): 49.1%
• Davante Adams (WR): 43.4%
• Tyler Higbee (TE): 27.7%
• Blake Corum (RB): 25.0%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Buffalo Bills

• Josh Allen (QB): 9.9% prob.
• James Cook (RB): 9.0%
• DJ Moore (WR): 5.4%
• Dalton Kincaid (TE): 4.5%
• Keon Coleman (WR): 3.6%

Los Angeles Rams

• Kyren Williams (RB): 13.1% prob.
• Puka Nacua (WR): 10.1%
• Davante Adams (WR): 8.5%
• Tyler Higbee (TE): 4.8%
• Blake Corum (RB): 4.3%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Bills and Rams. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 5 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bills' Josh Allen is projected for 248 passing yards, while the Rams' Matthew Stafford is expected to throw for a whopping 288 yards.

Bills rushing

• James Cook: 82 yds
• Josh Allen: 40 yds
• Ty Johnson: 11 yds

Rams rushing

• Kyren Williams: 74 yds
• Blake Corum: 38 yds
• Matthew Stafford: 4 yds

Bills receiving

• Dalton Kincaid: 56 yds
• Khalil Shakir: 51 yds
• DJ Moore: 47 yds
• Keon Coleman: 43 yds
• Ty Johnson: 17 yds

Rams receiving

• Puka Nacua: 98 yds
• Davante Adams: 67 yds
• Tyler Higbee: 31 yds
• Kyren Williams: 26 yds
• Colby Parkinson: 23 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 5 action between the Rams and Bills at SoFi Stadium is scheduled to start at 8:15 PM ET.

• Who: Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams
• Date: Monday, October 12, 2026
• Time: 8:15 PM ET/5:15PM PT
• Venue: SoFi Stadium

NFL Week 5 promo

Make the most of Dimers' Bills vs. Rams predictions by exploring the below DraftKings Predicts offer:

Conclusion

We predict the Rams, with a 63.8% win probability, will likely beat the Bills in Week 5 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.