Ravens vs. Falcons prediction: Why Atlanta is favored to win SNF Week 5 [2026]

Since our Ravens-Falcons predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Ravens and Falcons, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Falcons a 63.1% chance of defeating the Ravens in Week 5 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Falcons winning 23-20.

Key factors favoring the Falcons:

• Ravens QB situation
• Falcons offense
• Falcons team rating

According to our model, the oddsmakers have got it right, and the Ravens and Falcons each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 43.5-point over/under has a 51.6% chance of going over.

The main contributing factors to the over being more likely are:

• Playing conditions
• Falcons recent performance

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 5 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Ravens +3.5 (-110) / Falcons -3.5 (+108)
• Moneyline: Ravens +156, Falcons -160
• Total: Over/Under 43.5 (-104/+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Falcons -3.5 @ 48¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Falcons @ 62¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 43.5 @ 51¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Falcons -3.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Ravens vs. Falcons TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Ravens vs. Falcons?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Bijan Robinson is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Ravens vs. Falcons.

Our projections give Robinson a 64.7% chance of getting in for six at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, while the running back is a 20.2% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Baltimore Ravens

• Derrick Henry (RB): 56.6% probability
• Zay Flowers (WR): 31.6%
• Mark Andrews (TE): 24.7%
• Tyler Huntley (QB): 14.4%
• Rashod Bateman (WR): 13.3%

Atlanta Falcons

• Bijan Robinson (RB): 64.7% prob.
• Drake London (WR): 35.2%
• Brian Robinson (RB): 25.2%
• Kyle Pitts (TE): 21.6%
• Jahan Dotson (WR): 12.3%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Baltimore Ravens

• Derrick Henry (RB): 15.1% prob.
• Zay Flowers (WR): 6.9%
• Mark Andrews (TE): 5.1%
• Tyler Huntley (QB): 2.8%
• Rashod Bateman (WR): 2.6%

Atlanta Falcons

• Bijan Robinson (RB): 20.2% prob.
• Drake London (WR): 8.4%
• Brian Robinson (RB): 5.6%
• Kyle Pitts (TE): 4.7%
• Jahan Dotson (WR): 2.6%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Ravens and Falcons. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 5 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Ravens' Tyler Huntley is projected to have a quiet game with 183 passing yards. The Falcons' Michael Penix is expected to throw for 219 yards.

Ravens rushing

• Derrick Henry: 86 yds
• Tyler Huntley: 31 yds
• Justice Hill: 16 yds

Falcons rushing

• Bijan Robinson: 93 yds
• Brian Robinson: 37 yds
• Michael Penix: 6 yds

Ravens receiving

• Zay Flowers: 71 yds
• Mark Andrews: 36 yds
• Rashod Bateman: 24 yds
• Devontez Walker: 16 yds
• Matthew Hibner: 13 yds

Falcons receiving

• Drake London: 84 yds
• Bijan Robinson: 29 yds
• Kyle Pitts: 29 yds
• Jahan Dotson: 26 yds
• Zachariah Branch: 14 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 5 game between the Falcons and Ravens at Mercedes-Benz Stadium is scheduled to start at 8:20 PM ET.

• Who: Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons
• Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026
• Time: 8:20 PM ET/5:20PM PT
• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Falcons, with a 63.1% win probability, will likely beat the Ravens in Week 5 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.