What to know before Jayson Tatum returns in Celtics vs. Mavericks on Friday

Jayson Tatum is set to return to the court in Celtics vs. Mavericks on Friday, March 6, his first game action since tearing his Achilles tendon in last year's playoffs. While many are simply looking forward to the star's return, the NBA betting world wants to know what type of production to expect, how his return affects his teammates and where any betting value lies, so we'll be diving into the Dimers NBA projections to find out.

Tatum's timeline has been up in the air for much of the season, but the Celtics star is finally poised to return when the Celtics host a struggling Dallas Mavericks team in TD Garden.

The average NBA return timeline for a torn Achilles is approximately 10 months, meaning Tatum is returning on the early side of the recovery window and ensuring he stays healthy is the Celtics' top priority, especially after proving they can contend while he's been on the mend.

When healthy, he is a high-level shotmaker, an elite rebounder for his position (16th in the league in boards per game last season), and a rapidly improving playmaker who creates higher quality looks for everyone around him. 

With 20 regular-season games remaining, there's plenty of time to get Tatum back to his usual self, but what can bettors expect tonight?

Jayston Tatum projections vs. Mavericks

The numbers clearly point to the Celtics easing Tatum back into action, more than understandable considering the severity of the injury he's recovered from.

We can use the Dimers Pro NBA Projections Hub to get some insights for his first game back, where we predict him for 13.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 1.5 three-pointers made, conservative numbers that reflect the reality that he will not be unleashed from the get-go. The Celtics' goal is to prioritize his long-term health over short-term production.

Celtics projections vs. the Mavericks from the Dimers NBA Projections Hub.

That doesn't mean he'll be a non-factor - he's a significant presence whenever he's on the court, and tonight's matchup with the Mavericks who are on a back-to-back presents some upside.

Dallas ranks 30th (dead last) in the NBA in opponent assists over their last 15 games, while ranking 5th in points scored, a weak defensive profile that offers the perfect spot for Tatum to try and get in a grove.

If one fairly assumes Tatum will avoid taking hard drives to the basket in his first game back, targeting his assists prop could offer value. With 4+ assists available at +150 odds on DraftKings, our model identifies a notable NBA prop opportunity.

How Tatum's return impacts Celtics starters

The player most directly affected by Tatum's return, for better and worse, is Jaylen Brown.

In Tatum's absence, Brown has surged into a No. 1 role, seeing his Points, Assists and Rebounds jump by 6.7, 0.5 and 1.4 per game, all at career high marks for him this year.

Exploding from a 23rd-ranked usage rate of 28.9% last season to second in the entire league this year at 36.5%, trailing only Luka Doncic, he's arguably been the most valuable player in the NBA this year.

However, history tells us this will change, even if not right away. Once again we can use the Dimers NBA Projections Hub and see that we still project Brown for his typical outputs this season at 29.5 points, 7.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists.

With his points line at 26.5, our model anticipates Brown to get a boost from Tatum's return, and his rebounds projection aligns with a favorable Dimers NBA trend.

NBA Finals: Boston's championship odds & Eastern Conference outlook

The Celtics' resilience and Tatum's impending return have already moved markets, as seen in the Dimers NBA Futures all season long.

Boston's championship futures odds currently sit at +900, a dramatic improvement (for them) from the +6000 they opened at preseason, a price we called out as way too long on the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast.

That drop from +6000 to +900 reflects both Tatum's imminent return and the Celtics' strong underlying performance this season, but it also illustrates just how significantly the injury had suppressed confidence in Boston as a title contender.

At +900, they represent the fourth-most likely team in the NBA to win the championship, and the top overall probability in the East.

At 8.1% to win, our model says they should be closer to +1100, though, so the value is not quite there.

The Celtics currently hold a 25.5% probability of representing the East in the Finals, making them the most likely team from the conference to make it to the championship round.

Though Boston has found a rhythm, Tatum's return should only improve the team's ceiling and raise their already elite competitive floor.

If he can find his footing over the final 20 games and enter the playoffs healthy and increasingly sharp, the conversation will quickly shift from Tatum's return to how quickly he can become the player who makes a +900 futures ticket look like a bargain.

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