Week 6 NFL First Touchdown Scorer Data and Expert Parlay Picks

Betting on first touchdown scorers in NFL games is one of the most exciting and potentially lucrative propositions in sports betting. When multiple first touchdown bets are combined into a touchdown parlay or Round Robin, these touchdown predictions can help turn a modest wager into a significant payout.

As Week 6 of the NFL season rolls into a massive Sunday slate of games, our proprietary betting model has crunched the numbers, analyzing matchups, red-zone efficiency, defensive vulnerabilities, and historical performance to identify the players with the highest probability of scoring the first touchdown.

This week's analysis of our NFL player projections hub reveals a strong lean toward powerful running backs with high-volume roles, as several key matchups point to a run-heavy approach early on.

As we do every week, we've compiled our famous first touchdown Round Robin, made up five first TD props backed by the Dimers model probabilities, giving you a clear, data-driven edge for the Week 6 Sunday NFL slate.

NFL First Touchdown Scorers: Week 6 (Sunday Oct 12, 2025)

There's a mix of high value and strong probabilities in Week 6, with three players showing odds of at least +425. Each player has also seen their First TD probability rise slightly since we debuted these picks on the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast.

We have analyzed these guys, their respective probability of scoring the first touchdown, the current odds, and the key reasons why our model has tagged them as high-value first touchdown bets.

1. Jonathan Taylor (IND)

Matchup details:

• Game: Colts vs. Cardinals

• Date: Sunday, October 12, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium

The data says Colts RB Jonathan Taylor is among the most likely first TD scorers in Week 6, boasting a 18% probability - the highest on our list.

He’s found the end zone seven times this season, including two games with three or more touchdowns. Despite his explosiveness, six of those scores have come in the red zone, showing he doesn’t rely solely on big plays. The Cardinals’ defense has been strong, allowing just a 47.1% touchdown rate in the RZ, but Taylor remains the focal point of the Colts’ offense and a prime candidate to strike first.

Jonathan Taylor First TD odds: +285

2. Ashton Jeanty (LV)

Matchup details:

• Game: Raiders. vs Titans

• Date: Sunday, October 12, 2025
• Time: 4:05 PM ET
• Venue: Allegiant Stadium

For our second First TD scorer pick, we look to rookie Ashton Jeanty at a significant 17% probability, a Top 5 mark of the whole week.

Jeanty gets a Titans defense that’s allowed 10 rushing touchdowns this year—one of the worst marks in football. Tennessee is also giving up nearly 150 rushing yards per game, and Jeanty has turned 16 red-zone touches into three scores.

With Geno Smith’s struggles leading to a disjointed Raiders offense, expect them to lean heavily on Jeanty to exploit one of the league’s softest defensive fronts.

Ashton Jeanty First TD odds: +425

3. Kyren Williams (LAR)

Matchup details:

• Game: Rams @ Ravens

• Date: Sunday, October 12, 2025
• Time: 4:25 PM ET
• Venue: M&T Bank Stadium

Our third pick is another player straight from the Top 5 with Rams running back Kyren Williams at 15%.

A matchup with a Ravens defense that’s been gashed on the ground, Baltimore has surrendered 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game and several long runs in recent weeks, including a 27-yarder to Nick Chubb and a 72-yard breakaway by David Montgomery.

Williams has converted 20 red zone touches into four TDs this year, and with the Ravens owning the second-worst red-zone defense in football (76% conversion rate), he’s in prime position to find the end zone early.

Kyren Williams First TD odds: +390

4. Emeka Egbuka (TB)

Matchup details:

• Game: Buccaneers vs. 49ers

• Date: Sunday, October 12, 2025
• Time: 4:25 PM ET
• Venue: Raymond James Stadium

Switching it up from the top RBs, we move to a wide reciever in a great spot with Bucs rookie Emeka Egbuka, the most likely WR to score first in Week 6 at 11%.

He faces a 49ers defense that just gave up nearly 400 passing yards and three touchdowns to Matt Stafford.

Without Nick Bosa, San Francisco’s pass rush has lost its bite, allowing eight passing scores this season.

Egbuka has scored in all but one game, and even in that outing he posted six catches for 85 yards. As Baker Mayfield’s top target in a pass-heavy offense, Egbuka is a strong value to open the scoring.

Emeka Egbuka First TD odds: +650

5. Quentin Johnston (LAC)

Matchup details:

• Game: Chargers @ Dolphins

• Date: Sunday, October 12, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium

Note: Quentin Johnston is now a game-time decision for today's game - consider another WR substitute in this game, or play the x4.

We close out our first TD scorer picks with another wide receiver, Chargers wideout Quentin Johnston who gets a Top 10 probability for a WR this week at 9%.

The backfield situation is murky in the Chargers offense, so expect Justin Herbert to attack through the air against a defense allowing 1.2 touchdowns per game to wide receivers.

With teammate Hassan Haskins priced at +650 and a lower probability (8.2%), Johnston offers better value at a similar probability in a must-win bounceback game for Los Angeles.

Quentin Johnston First TD odds: +950

Dimers' First Touchdown picks for Week 6 of the NFL.First Touchdown Scorers: Week 6 Round Robin Parlay

For bettors looking to leverage this data, a first touchdown Round Robin offers a balanced approach to maximizing potential returns, with less risk than a traditional NFL parlay. By combining these five players into a Round Robin bet, you are pairing multiple players together in different combinations, allowing for a payout even if only two of the five players score first in their respective games.

Given the strong probabilities and appealing odds, a NFL first touchdown Round Robin of 2, 3, 4, and 5-leg parlay combinations using this curated list is a high-entertainment strategy for Week 6. The total potential payout for a small stake on this group is significant, making it a cornerstone of our weekly betting strategy.