Bills vs. Dolphins parlay: Best odds for three NFL prop bets on Thursday Night Football

It's Week 3 in the NFL and we're kicking things off with another Primetime Parlay built with the Dimers model for tonight's Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Thursday Night Football matchup on September 18, 2025.

This is our biggest NFL season yet on Dimers, with the launch of our brand-new NFL Player Projections Hub, complete with boxscores and fantasy projections, our improved NFL models and the rollout of our new Dimers Sports Betting Podcast.

To kick off Week 3, we're using our model's Thursday Night Football predictions to build a +575 SGP over on DraftKings, where new users can claim a $200 bonus and a $200 NFL Sunday Ticket discount.

+575 Bills vs. Dolphins NFL Same Game Parlay Picks

After simulating tonight's game over 10,000 times, our model has identified the following projections and probabilities for the picks that make up our three-leg same game parlay in Bills vs. Dolphins on Thursday Night Football, September 18.

MORE: Bills vs. Dolphins TNF Full Game Betting Preview

Leg 1: James Cook 60+ Rushing Yards

First up is the Bills workhorse James Cook to rack up at least 60 rushing yards on TNF, an alternate line that sits inside the Dimers model's projection of 72.1 rushing yards.

Cook has hit this mark in 1 of 2 games so far, taking 13 carries in a come-from-behind win for 44 yards in Week 1 and hammering 132 yards on 21 carries in a drubbing vs. the Jets. 

The Dolphins meanwhile allowed Colts RB Jonathan Taylor to rack up 71 of the team's' 156 rushing yards in Week 1 and 122 team rushing yards to the Patriots in Week 2.

Bills QB Josh Allen has a busted nose and will be wearing a protective visor, so there's a good chance he limits his rushing attempts, inflating Cook's potential workload against a soft Miami rushing defense.

Leg 2: Dalton Kincaid Over 29.5 Receiving Yards

Next, we're shifting to the passing game for the Bills as we take their TE Dalton Kincaid to clear his receiving line of 29.5 yards.

Kincaid has cleared this in both games with 48 and 37 on 10 total targets and the Dimers model projects him to make it 3/3 with 34.1 receiving yards and 3.0 receptions.

Colts TE Tyler Warren caught 7 balls for 76 yards in Week 1 vs. Miami and Patriots TE Austin Hooper brought in 3 for 38 in Week 2 - both were the second-leading receiver on their team, setting up Kincaid for a prime opportunity in an exploitable matchup.

MORE: The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast - Episode 4 

Leg 3: Devon Achane Anytime TD Scorer

Finally, we'll take Dolphins RB DeVon Achane to make it three straight games with a touchdown to open the season.

There haven't been many bright spots through two games for Miami, but Achane is certainly one of them. He was the only one to produce in their 33-8 Week 1 drubbing, taking 10 total touches for 75 yards and a score, before hauling in another receiving score on a 29-yard catch and run in Week 2.

His volume dwarfs everyone else on the Dolphins - he has more receptions out of the backfield alone than any other player on the team.

His 49.4% Anytime Touchdown probability is not only third-highest int his game and best on the Dolphins, but also a significant edge with our fair odds of +102 shorter than the +120 odds on DraftKings, making him to score a TD one of our best solo bets of the night.

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