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Commanders vs. Vikings prediction: Why Washington is favored to win in NFL Week 14, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Washington Commanders vs Minnesota Vikings predictions for NFL Sunday.
The Minnesota Vikings and Washington Commanders are scheduled to meet in Week 14 of the NFL season at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday, starting at 1:00PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Commanders as the most likely winner of the Commanders vs. Vikings game.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Commanders vs. Vikings prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Commanders-Vikings predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Commanders and Vikings 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Commanders a 61% chance of beating the Vikings in Week 14 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Commanders winning 22-19.
According to our model, the Commanders (-1.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the 43.5-point over/under has a 54% chance of staying under.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 14 straight up picks.
Commanders vs. Vikings odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Commanders | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -1.5 (-105) | +1.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -125 | +108 |
| Total | o43.5 (-112) | u43.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Commanders vs. Vikings picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Commanders -1.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Commanders | -125 |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -105 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Commanders to win.
Commanders vs. Vikings TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Commanders vs. Vikings?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 14, Chris Rodriguez is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Commanders vs. Vikings.
Our projections give Rodriguez a 41.8% chance of scoring a TD at U.S. Bank Stadium, while the running back is a 10.1% chance of registering the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Washington Commanders
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez (RB) | 41.8% |
| Terry McLaurin (WR) | 32.3% |
| Deebo Samuel (WR) | 32.0% |
| Zach Ertz (TE) | 27.2% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB) | 20.8% |
Minnesota Vikings
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Aaron Jones (RB) | 36.0% |
| Justin Jefferson (WR) | 33.0% |
| Jordan Mason (RB) | 29.8% |
| Jordan Addison (WR) | 27.5% |
| T.J. Hockenson (TE) | 19.5% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Washington Commanders
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez (RB) | 10.1% |
| Terry McLaurin (WR) | 7.3% |
| Deebo Samuel (WR) | 7.2% |
| Zach Ertz (TE) | 5.9% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB) | 4.4% |
Minnesota Vikings
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Aaron Jones (RB) | 8.2% |
| Justin Jefferson (WR) | 7.4% |
| Jordan Mason (RB) | 6.5% |
| Jordan Addison (WR) | 5.9% |
| T.J. Hockenson (TE) | 4.0% |
Commanders vs Vikings player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Commanders and Vikings. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 14 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Commanders' Jayden Daniels is projected for 216 passing yards, while the Vikings' J.J. McCarthy is expected to throw for 196 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels (WAS) | 216 |
| J.J. McCarthy (MIN) | 196 |
Commanders rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez | 49 |
| Jayden Daniels | 38 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 24 |
Vikings rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 51 |
| Jordan Mason | 40 |
| J.J. McCarthy | 17 |
Commanders receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 58 |
| Deebo Samuel | 49 |
| Zach Ertz | 42 |
| Noah Brown | 19 |
| Treylon Burks | 19 |
Vikings receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 68 |
| Jordan Addison | 45 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 30 |
| Jalen Nailor | 23 |
| Aaron Jones | 21 |
Commanders vs. Vikings game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 14 matchup between the Vikings and Commanders at U.S. Bank Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00PM ET.
- Who: Washington Commanders vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Date: Sunday, December 7, 2025
- Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Commanders, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Vikings in Week 14 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Commanders vs. Vikings insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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