Commanders vs. Dolphins prediction: Why Miami is favored to win in NFL Week 11, 2025

The Miami Dolphins will face the Washington Commanders in NFL Week 11 action at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium on Sunday, commencing at 9:30AM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Dolphins as the most likely winner of the Commanders vs. Dolphins game.

This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Commanders vs. Dolphins prediction: Who will win and cover?

Since our Commanders-Dolphins predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Commanders and Dolphins 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Dolphins a 58% chance of defeating the Commanders in Week 11 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Dolphins winning 24-22.

According to our model, the bookies have got it right, and the Commanders and Dolphins each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 47.5 points has a 52% chance of staying under.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 11 straight up picks.

Commanders vs. Dolphins odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Commanders	Dolphins
Spread	+2.5 (+100)	-2.5 (-106)
Moneyline	+130	-136
Total	o47.5 (-110)	u47.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Commanders vs. Dolphins picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Commanders +2.5	+100
Moneyline	Dolphins	-136
Total	Under 47.5	-110

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Dolphins to win.

Commanders vs. Dolphins TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Commanders vs. Dolphins?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 11, De'Von Achane is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Commanders vs. Dolphins.

Our projections give Achane a 58.1% chance of getting in for six at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, while the running back is a 15.5% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Washington Commanders

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Chris Rodriguez (RB)	37.3%
Deebo Samuel (WR)	34.5%
Zach Ertz (TE)	31.2%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)	27.4%
Marcus Mariota (QB)	20.1%

Miami Dolphins

Player	Anytime TD Probability
De'Von Achane (RB)	58.1%
Jaylen Waddle (WR)	42.5%
Malik Washington (WR)	27.7%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (WR)	18.4%
Greg Dulcich (TE)	17.9%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Washington Commanders

Player	First TD Probability
Chris Rodriguez (RB)	8.1%
Deebo Samuel (WR)	7.3%
Zach Ertz (TE)	6.5%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)	5.5%
Marcus Mariota (QB)	3.9%

Miami Dolphins

Player	First TD Probability
De'Von Achane (RB)	15.5%
Jaylen Waddle (WR)	9.9%
Malik Washington (WR)	5.8%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (WR)	3.6%
Greg Dulcich (TE)	3.5%

Commanders vs Dolphins player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Commanders and Dolphins. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 11 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Commanders' Marcus Mariota is projected for 210 passing yards. The Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa is expected to throw for 236 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Marcus Mariota (WAS)	210
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)	236

Commanders rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Chris Rodriguez	43
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	32
Marcus Mariota	30

Dolphins rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
De'Von Achane	83
Jaylen Wright	10
Ollie Gordon	10

Commanders receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Deebo Samuel	54
Zach Ertz	45
Chris Moore	31
Robbie Chosen	30
Jaylin Lane	28

Dolphins receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Jaylen Waddle	82
De'Von Achane	41
Malik Washington	36
Greg Dulcich	28
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	23

Commanders vs. Dolphins game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 11 matchup between the Dolphins and Commanders at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium is scheduled to start at 9:30AM ET.

• Who: Washington Commanders vs. Miami Dolphins
• Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025
• Time: 9:30AM ET/6:30AM PT
• Venue: Santiago Bernabéu Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Dolphins, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat the Commanders in Week 11 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Commanders vs. Dolphins insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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