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Capitals vs. Penguins prediction: Close contest projected after new data released for Thursday's NHL matchup [11/6/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Washington Capitals vs Pittsburgh Penguins predictions for NHL Thursday.
NHL action continues on Thursday at 7:30PM ET as the Washington Capitals square off with the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG Paints Arena.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts an equal chance for both both teams to win the Capitals-Penguins matchup game.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including goal scorer projections, best bets and player prop picks.
Caps vs. Penguins prediction: Who will win, cover the puck line?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NHL game between the Capitals and Penguins 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently can't split the two teams, giving both the Capitals and Penguins a 50% chance of winning the game.
According to our model, the Penguins (+1.5) have a 70% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 55% chance of staying under.
Capitals vs. Penguins odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Capitals | Penguins |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+210) | +1.5 (-260) |
| Moneyline | -110 | -102 |
| Total | o6.5 (+100) | u6.5 (-122) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Capitals vs. Penguins picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Penguins +1.5 | -260 |
| Moneyline | Penguins | -102 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -122 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
Capitals vs. Penguins player props
Who will score a goal in Capitals vs. Penguins?
According to our model, Sidney Crosby is most likely to score an anytime goal in Capitals vs. Penguins.
Our projections give Crosby a 37.7% chance of scoring a goal at PPG Paints Arena, while the star is a 7.5% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Washington Capitals
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin | 31.5% |
| Tom Wilson | 29.5% |
| Aliaksei Protas | 29.4% |
| Dylan Strome | 29.0% |
| Connor McMichael | 23.2% |
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby | 37.7% |
| Bryan Rust | 35.5% |
| Anthony Mantha | 26.1% |
| Evgeni Malkin | 23.0% |
| Thomas Novak | 20.2% |
First goal scorer predictions
Washington Capitals
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin | 6.5% |
| Dylan Strome | 5.9% |
| Tom Wilson | 5.6% |
| Aliaksei Protas | 5.4% |
| Connor McMichael | 4.8% |
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby | 7.5% |
| Bryan Rust | 7.4% |
| Anthony Mantha | 4.9% |
| Evgeni Malkin | 4.0% |
| Thomas Novak | 3.8% |
Caps vs. Penguins game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's game between the Penguins and Capitals at PPG Paints Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:30PM ET.
- Who: Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
- Date: Thursday, November 6, 2025
- Time: 7:30PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: PPG Paints Arena
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Conclusion
We predict a close game between the Capitals and Penguins on Thursday, with each team having a 50% chance of winning.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Capitals vs. Penguins insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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