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Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings prediction: Detroit favored to win Sunday's NHL matchup [12/28/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Toronto Maple Leafs vs Detroit Red Wings predictions for NHL Sunday.
The Detroit Red Wings will square off with the Toronto Maple Leafs, in what is expected to be a tight NHL game, at Little Caesars Arena on Sunday, beginning at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Red Wings a slight edge with a 53% win probability over the Maple Leafs.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NHL game between the Maple Leafs and Red Wings 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Red Wings a 53% chance of defeating the Maple Leafs.
According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 68% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 53% chance of staying under.
Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Maple Leafs | Red Wings |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-218) | -1.5 (+180) |
| Moneyline | +108 | -125 |
| Total | o6.5 (-105) | u6.5 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Maple Leafs +1.5 | -218 |
| Moneyline | Maple Leafs | +108 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -112 |
According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings player props
Who will score a goal in Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings?
According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings.
Our projections give Matthews a 40.9% chance of scoring a goal at Little Caesars Arena, while the star is an 8.3% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 40.9% |
| William Nylander | 33.8% |
| John Tavares | 30.2% |
| Matthew Knies | 25.4% |
| Bobby McMann | 21.5% |
Detroit Red Wings
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat | 40.8% |
| Dylan Larkin | 37.8% |
| Lucas Raymond | 32.4% |
| Emmitt Finnie | 19.2% |
| Marco Kasper | 19.0% |
First goal scorer predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 8.3% |
| William Nylander | 6.6% |
| John Tavares | 5.7% |
| Matthew Knies | 4.2% |
| Matias Maccelli | 3.8% |
Detroit Red Wings
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat | 8.0% |
| Dylan Larkin | 7.5% |
| Lucas Raymond | 6.3% |
| Marco Kasper | 3.7% |
| Emmitt Finnie | 3.0% |
Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's matchup between the Red Wings and Maple Leafs at Little Caesars Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Detroit Red Wings
- Date: Sunday, December 28, 2025
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Little Caesars Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Red Wings, with a 53% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Sunday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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