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Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes prediction, odds, MLS picks [5/2/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Toronto FC vs San Jose Earthquakes predictions for MLS Saturday.
Toronto will square off with San Jose in MLS action at BMO Field on Saturday, commencing at 1:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven MLS model predicts San Jose as the most likely winner of the Toronto vs. San Jose game.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes prediction: Who will win?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's MLS matchup between Toronto and San Jose, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently suggests a 31.3% chance of Toronto winning, a 45.7% chance for San Jose, and a 22.9% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 62% chance of going over, according to our model.
Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes odds
We have researched the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Toronto | San Jose | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +240 | +105 | +260 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -175 | +120 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toronto | +240 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | -175 |
According to our MLS best bets, the top play to make on this game is Toronto to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Correct score predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| TFC 1-1 SJE | 10.2% |
| TFC 1-2 SJE | 9.1% |
| TFC 2-1 SJE | 7.4% |
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's action between Toronto and San Jose in MLS at BMO Field is scheduled to commence at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes
- Date: Saturday, May 2, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: BMO Field
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Toronto has a 31.3% win probability on Saturday, San Jose has a 45.7% win probability, and there is a 22.9% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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