Three NFL player props backed by perfect trends on NFL Thanksgiving Day include Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff

Week 13 in the NFL is here and it kicks off with a three-game Thanksgiving Day slate.

We are ready to roll with our best NFL Bets, Player Props Picks, Touchdowns and more for this week, but first, we're looking at some standout NFL trends for Thursday's Thanksgiving action.

Dimers' NFL Predictions reveal a number of valuable betting opportunities, and using our NFL Trends tool, a key part of our comprehensive suite of Dimers Pro NFL features, we've identified four strong player prop trends supported by both historical performances and predictions from our data-backed NFL simulations.

Each of these trends has hit at a perfect 100% hit rate over each player's last five games at minimum, supported by both data and historical performances.

Here are three NFL trends to put on your betting radar for NFL Thanksgiving Day, one from each game.

Three NFL Prop Trends on NFL Thanksgiving Day

Prop Bet: Jared Goff over 238.5 Passing Yards

Current trend: 5 of last 5

Full season trend: 7 of 11

In the first game of the day, Lions QB Jared Goff looks to continue his run of strong passing games, clearing this line of 238.5 in five straight, and with 250+ in his last four.

Goff has a tough matchup on his plate this Sunday, facing a Packers team that held him to 225 yards in Week 1 and limits QBs to 198.4 passing yards per game so far this season.

Working in his favor with this trend is Goff's passing volume since Dan Campbell took over the offensive playcalling. After throwing 30+ passes just once in his first seven games, Goff has thrown 33+ attempts in his last four, with at least 37 attempts in three of those.

The Dimers model currently projects Goff just over this mark at 239.9 passing yards. It's important to note that Goff's line is at least 240.5 at multiple other sportsbooks, so this presents the best line for those looking to back the over on his current five-game streak.

For more, check out our full player projections for Lions vs. Packers.

Prop Bet: George Pickens over 75.5 receiving yards

Current trend: 6 of last 6

Full season trend: 7 of 11

When the Cowboys host the Chiefs in the afternoon on Thanksgiving, WR George Pickens will be looking to stuff the boxscore with receiving yards once again.

He's tallied at least 78 receiving yards in six consecutive games, nearly doubling that mark with 140+ receiving yards in three games during this streak.

Kansas City has an impressive passing defense, limiting WRs to 123.2 total yards per game this season, but Pickens has hit this mark against other strong defenses like the Broncos and Packers earlier this season.

The Dimers model projects him for the seventh-most receiving yards this week at 77.2 vs. the Chiefs. While this trend is based on the betting value of his -112 odds, bettors can find his line as low as 73.5 at FanDuel as of this writing.

Check out our Cowboys vs. Chiefs prediction for more data and insights.

Prop Bet: Lamar Jackson under 235.5 receiving yards

Current trend: 5 of last 5

Full season trend: 7 of 8

Our final trend is on Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, who hasn't put up his usual passing numbers this season, going under his line of 235.5 in all but one game this year. Our model projects a close one, but has him at 234.1 passing yards in this game.

The Bengals defense remains one of the weakest in the NFL, allowing 266.9 passing yards per game, so it could be the game where Jackson gets going again, but they're always very vulnerable on the ground and that's notable.

The one game in which Jackson went over this total, Derrick Henry saw just 12 carries, one of his lowest touch totals of the season. He hasn't handled fewer than 18 carries since Week 5.

While a dangerous game from Lamar is always in play, Baltimore should stick to what's been working on their five-game win streak - give the ball to Derrick Henry and exploit the league's worst rushing defense.

Get predictions and data for this matchup between the Ravens and Bengals.

Why Not Parlay these Player Props?

All backed by a 100% hit rate over the past five games, these NFL player prop bets are supported by strong trends as well as aligned with the Dimers NFL simulation data.

Bettors can play each bet as a straight wager, or entertain a trends-backed NFL parlay that would pay out at impressive odds of +572 which would return over $150 off a $25 bet.

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2025-26 Season

• NFL Week 13 Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 13 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• NFL Projections: BRAND NEW Player Projections Hub
• The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast: Watch the latest episode
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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