This NFL betting sweet spot is up 16.7% this season. Here’s why it points to Denver

The NFL playoffs are where betting markets get sharp — but not perfect.

Even in the Divisional Round, small pricing inefficiencies still exist. This season, NFL moneyline bets that fall into Dimers’ Sweet Spot edge range between 2-10% have returned a 16.7% ROI, and one of those exact profiles shows up this weekend with the Denver Broncos as they take on the Buffalo Bills.

We’re lifting the curtain on the Dimers NFL Model Insights Report — normally only available to Dimers Pro subscribers — so you can see exactly where our model is thriving ahead of the weekend.

MORE: Introducing the Dimers Sweet Spot Signal

Why this sweet spot points to the Broncos

Start with the football context.

Denver enters the Divisional Round as the AFC’s No. 1 seed, coming off a bye and in better health than most teams still playing. At this stage of the playoffs, rest and availability matter.

They also get the benefit of playing at home, in one of the toughest environments in the league. Denver’s altitude has long been a factor for visiting teams, particularly late in the season when fatigue becomes harder to hide.

Across the field, Buffalo arrives far from full strength.

Despite having one of the league’s top quarterbacks, the Bills are dealing with a lengthy injury list. Josh Allen is playing banged up, Dalton Kincaid is limited, and Buffalo will be without receivers Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers. On defense, Jordan Poyer is sidelined with a hamstring injury, with other contributors also less than 100%.

RELATED: Best NFL Props for Divisional Weekend

None of this guarantees a result — but it helps explain why the market may be slightly underrating Denver’s true chances.

Where the numbers come In

The Dimers NFL Best Bets Model - which runs 10,000 simulations of every game using our projection data - gives the Broncos a 56.1% chance to win. With the current best available odds at -110 with Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing, that translates to a 3.7% edge.

That edge places Denver directly into a Dimers Sweet Spot range — a signal we use to highlight bets that fall into historically profitable profiles for our prediction models.

For NFL moneyline bets in this range this season, Sweet Spot plays have returned a 16.7% ROI across 50+ similar bets.

In other words, Denver isn’t being highlighted because it’s a popular side. It’s showing up because it matches a type of bet our model has consistently flagged when the odds don’t fully reflect the underlying probability.

This Isn’t just about one game

The Broncos are simply this week’s example.

Throughout the season, the Dimers NFL Model has consistently found value across multiple markets, including:

• Moneylines with modest edges

• Totals that close with a 2%+ edge

• Player props, particularly rushing attempts, rushing yards, receiving yards, and receptions

These results are driven by repeatable patterns, not one-off outcomes.

What Dimers Pro subscribers see each week

Dimers Pro subscribers get access to this type of insight on a regular basis, including:

• NFL Best Bets powered by model probabilities and edges

• Sweet Spot filtering to quickly identify historically profitable ranges

• Daily player prop projections across key markets

• Weekly NFL Model Insight Reports highlighting what’s actually working, sent directly to subscribers via email.

Sign up to Dimers Pro and get your first month for the price of a week ($9.99) with code INSIGHT at checkout.

The goal isn’t to win every bet — it’s to consistently recognize when the numbers are working in your favor. This weekend, the Broncos fit that profile.