Texas vs. North Carolina State prediction: Close contest projected after new data released for men's college basketball matchup [3/17/2026]

North Carolina State will take on Texas, in what is expected to be a close men's college basketball game, at UD Arena on Tuesday, commencing at 9:15 PM ET.

For this First Four game, North Carolina State—a talented but underachieving roster capable of beating anyone— come up against Texas, a strong rebounding team with a top-10 offense.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced college basketball model gives an equal chance for both both teams to win the Texas-North Carolina State matchup.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's Texas vs. North Carolina State matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.

Texas vs. North Carolina State prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's NCAA basketball matchup between Texas and North Carolina State 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model can't split the two teams, giving both Texas and North Carolina State a 50% chance of winning the game. Our predicted score is Texas 78-78 North Carolina State.

According to our model, Texas (+1.5) has a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the 157.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.

While there is no way for a men's college basketball game to end in a tie, our prediction of 78-78 is based on each team's average score in the above-mentioned simulations of Texas vs. North Carolina State.

Texas vs. North Carolina State odds

We have sourced the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Texas vs. North Carolina State picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: