...
...
Read Article
Tennis betting: Why Denis Shapovalov is the best underdog play at the Italian Open
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Dave Garofolo
The 'books have Argentina's Mariano Navone as the overwhelming favorite against Denis Shapovalov at the Italian Open on Thursday, but our tennis simulator says they're wrong. Nick Slade explains.
In the tennis betting markets for tournaments such as the ATP Italian Open, momentum can often creates a reputation premium. Mariano Navone has been on a tear, and the sportsbooks have reacted by installing him as a heavy -189 favorite against Denis Shapovalov. But while the public is chasing the hot hand, Dimers’ predictive technology has identified a major mispricing.
According to our advanced tennis predictions, Navone is a drastically overrated favorite. By running thousands of match simulations, Dimers Pro has unearthed a massive opportunity for users to back the veteran Shapovalov at a price that simply doesn't match the reality of his win probability.
Tennis betting: Why the odds don't always stack up
In this Italian Open match between Denis Shapovalov and Mariano Navone the sportsbooks are effectively telling you that Shapovalov has only slim chance to compete here. Our data says otherwise.
While he is the underdog, the discrepancy between the odds and the probability creates a triple-threat of value across three major markets.
Why multiple sportsbook accounts are non-negotiable
This Shapovalov vs. Navone match serves as a perfect case study for why serious bettors must maintain accounts across multiple online sportsbooks. Dimers Pro doesn't just find the edge; it finds the best edge by scanning every major book in real-time.
Below, we have identified three sets of best odds at three different books: DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel, and bet365.
If you were to place all these bets at a single sportsbook, you would be leaving money on the table—it's as simple as that. For example, taking a worse price on the moneyline at a different book could slash your edge from 5.3% down to 2% or less. By having multiple accounts ready to go, you ensure you capture the maximum value that the Dimers Pro model has detected.
By utilizing the specific books Dimers recommends below, you ensure you are getting the maximum possible Expected Value (EV) on every dollar wagered.
Enjoy this type of analysis? Unlock more +EV tennis bets by claiming a free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro now, cancel any time.
Italian Open bets: Tennis betting strategy for Thursday
Moneyline (H2H): Shapovalov to win at +168 (DraftKings). Our model identifies a 42.6% win probability. At +168 odds, this represents a 5.3% Edge—one of the highest edge plays on the board.
Game Spread: Shapovalov +3.5 at -126 (FanDuel). With a 60.1% probability of covering this spread, bettors are looking at a healthy 4.4% Edge.
To Win 1st Set: Shapovalov at +130 (bet365). We give him a 45.9% probability to strike first, resulting in a 2.4% Edge.
Why we’re passing on the Over/Under
You might be wondering about the Over/Under 21.5 games after seeing the high edges on the Shapovalov markets. Our model actually leans toward the Over, giving it a 56% probability.
However, betting isn't about picking what might happen; it's about picking what is profitable. At the current odds of -128 (FanDuel), the "edge" is actually negative 0.2%. To make this a recommended bet, we would need significantly better odds.
This is the power of Dimers Pro: it provides the discipline to pass on likely outcomes that are priced too high, keeping your bankroll focused on the high edge plays where the math is firmly on your side.
The bottom line
The market is overvaluing Navone’s recent form and discounting Shapovalov’s pedigree on the big stage. By leveraging the data-driven insights of Dimers Pro and shopping for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, and bet365, you are positioning yourself to take advantage of a market that has leaned too far in one direction.
The play: Don't pay the reputation premium. Back Shapovalov’s value and secure the best odds across your books.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Dave Garofolo through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
Advertiser disclosure