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Denis Shapovalov vs. Mariano Navone prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Shapovalov vs Navone predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Denis Shapovalov and Mariano Navone will meet in the round of 128 of the ATP Italian Open event on Thursday.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Mariano Navone as the most likely winner of the Shapovalov vs. Navone match.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Shapovalov vs. Navone prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's Shapovalov-Navone men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives Navone a 58% chance of beating Shapovalov at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Navone has a 55% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Shapovalov (+3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 21.5 games has a 56% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Denis Shapovalov vs. Mariano Navone odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Shapovalov | Navone |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +168 | -189 |
| First Set | +130 | -164 |
| Game Spread | +3.5 (-126) | -3.5 (-108) |
| Total Games | o21.5 (-128) | u21.5 (-104) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Shapovalov vs. Navone picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Shapovalov | +168 |
| First Set | Navone | -128 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Denis Shapovalov to win.
Although Shapovalov is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Shapovalov vs. Navone updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Denis Shapovalov and Mariano Navone is scheduled to start on Thursday at 9:40 AM ET.
- Who: Denis Shapovalov vs. Mariano Navone
- Date: Thursday, May 7, 2026
- Approx. Time: 9:40 AM ET/6:40AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 128
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Mariano Navone, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat Denis Shapovalov at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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