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Tennessee vs. Virginia prediction: Virginia favored to win men's March Madness Second Round matchup [3/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Tennessee vs Virginia predictions for college basketball Sunday.
Virginia will face Tennessee, in what is expected to be a tight men's college basketball game, at Xfinity Mobile Arena on Sunday, starting at 6:10 PM ET.
For this Second Round matchup, Virginia—an uncharacteristically explosive Virginia team with a loaded frontcourt— come up against Tennessee, an elite rebounding team built around defense.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced college basketball model gives Virginia a slight edge with a 52% win probability over Tennessee.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's Tennessee vs. Virginia matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.
Tennessee vs. Virginia prediction: Who will win and advance to the Sweet Sixteen?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NCAAM Tournament game between Tennessee and Virginia 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives Virginia a 52% chance of defeating Tennessee. Our predicted final score has Virginia winning 70-69.
According to our model, Virginia (+1.5) has a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 137.5 points has a 55% chance of going over.
Tennessee vs. Virginia odds
We have researched the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Tennessee | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -1.5 (+102) | +1.5 (-118) |
| Moneyline | -113 | -105 |
| Total | o137.5 (-108) | u137.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Tennessee vs. Virginia picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia +1.5 | -118 |
| Moneyline | Virginia | -105 |
| Total | Over 137.5 | -108 |
According to our men's college basketball best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 137.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Tennessee vs. Virginia game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's men's college basketball matchup between Virginia and Tennessee at Xfinity Mobile Arena is scheduled to start at 6:10 PM ET.
- Who: Tennessee vs. Virginia
- Date: Sunday, March 22, 2026
- Time: 6:10 PM ET/3:10PM PT
- Venue: Xfinity Mobile Arena
- March Madness stage: Second Round
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Make the most of Dimers' Tennessee vs. Virginia predictions by exploring the below offers from OG, Bet365, BetMGM, and Thrillzz.
Conclusion
We predict Virginia, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat Tennessee this men's March Madness Second Round matchup.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Tennessee vs. Virginia insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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