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Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction: Toronto Predicted to Win Monday's NHL Matchup [1/20/2025]

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Written by Nick Slade

Our expert prediction for Monday's Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning-Toronto Maple Leafs Predictions and Game Preview.
Scotiabank Arena sets the stage for the NHL matchup between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs this Monday.

NHL action continues on Monday at 7:30PM ET as the Tampa Bay Lightning take on the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model (see Dimers Pro for full access) predicts the Maple Leafs as the most likely winner of today's game.

"Our team has utilized the latest data to simulate Monday's Tampa Bay-Toronto game 10,000 times," said Mac Douglass from Dimers.

"Incorporating recent updates and thousands of additional inputs, our prediction shows the Maple Leafs are likely to win, with a probability of 54%, compared to the Lightning's 46%."

For further insights into Monday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Lightning vs. Maple Leafs predictions page.

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Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Game-Day Updates and Essential Details

Monday's matchup between the Maple Leafs and Lightning at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:30PM ET.

Dimers.com's in-depth preview of Monday's Lightning vs. Maple Leafs matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Tampa Bay vs. Toronto picks, be sure to check out the latest NHL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction: Who Will Win, Cover the Puck Line?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's NHL matchup between the Lightning and Maple Leafs 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Maple Leafs a 54% chance of defeating the Lightning.

According to our model, the Lightning (+1.5) have a 66% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 53% chance of staying under.

Pre-Game Probabilities
Last Updated: 12:15AM, Jan 21
Moneyline
Over / Under
Puck Line
Lightning
Win %
46%
54%
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See Matchup
Maple Leafs
Lightning TB
Win %
46%
54%
See Matchup
Maple Leafs TOR
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Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Odds

We have researched the best betting odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type Lightning Maple Leafs
Puck Line +1.5 (-220) -1.5 (+190)
Moneyline +115 -134
Total o6.5 (-105) u6.5 (-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Picks

Our model's biggest edge in today's Lightning vs. Maple Leafs matchup is on the puck line.

Our expert predictions, aligned with the latest odds, reveal the best NHL picks for every game throughout the season.

Unlimited access to our complete set of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

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Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Player Props

Who will score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Maple Leafs?

According to our model, Toronto's Auston Matthews is most likely to score the first goal in Lightning vs. Maple Leafs.

Our projections give Matthews a 10.2% chance of scoring the first goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the Maple Leafs star is a 47.8% chance of netting an anytime goal.

First Goal Scorer Predictions

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player First Goal Probability
Brayden Point 8.2%
Jake Guentzel 6.8%
Nikita Kucherov 6.6%

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player First Goal Probability
Auston Matthews 10.2%
William Nylander 7.6%
Bobby McMann 6.2%

Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Anytime Goal Probability
Brayden Point 40.8%
Jake Guentzel 35.1%
Nikita Kucherov 34.9%

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Anytime Goal Probability
Auston Matthews 47.8%
William Nylander 37.3%
Mitch Marner 29.6%

Conclusion

We predict the Maple Leafs, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Lightning on Monday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Maple Leafs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.

More on NHL

Stay up-to-date with the latest NHL news, NHL best bets and parlay picks throughout the season. Plus, our Stanley Cup odds provide the latest projections for the Stanley Cup title.

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Written by
Nick Slade
Chief Content Officer

Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.

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