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Lightning vs. Blackhawks prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Friday's NHL matchup [1/23/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Tampa Bay Lightning vs Chicago Blackhawks predictions for NHL Friday.
The Chicago Blackhawks will take on the favored Tampa Bay Lightning in NHL action at United Center on Friday, beginning at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Lightning vs. Blackhawks game.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Lightning vs. Hawks prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's NHL game between the Lightning and Blackhawks 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Lightning a 68% chance of beating the Blackhawks.
According to our model, the Blackhawks (+1.5) have a 53% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of six goals has a 54% chance of going over.
Lightning vs. Blackhawks odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lightning | Blackhawks |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (-118) | +1.5 (+100) |
| Moneyline | -295 | +250 |
| Total | o6 (-110) | u6 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lightning vs. Blackhawks picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Blackhawks +1.5 | +100 |
| Moneyline | Blackhawks | +250 |
| Total | Over 6 | -110 |
According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Blackhawks +1.5 at the spread.
Lightning vs. Blackhawks player props
Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Blackhawks?
According to our model, Nikita Kucherov is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Blackhawks.
Our projections give Kucherov a 40.2% chance of scoring a goal at United Center, while the star is a 9.0% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov | 40.2% |
| Brandon Hagel | 38.6% |
| Jake Guentzel | 38.4% |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 21.4% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 20.6% |
Chicago Blackhawks
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Connor Bedard | 31.5% |
| Tyler Bertuzzi | 26.0% |
| Ilya Mikheyev | 22.5% |
| Frank Nazar | 21.4% |
| Nick Lardis | 18.5% |
First goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov | 9.0% |
| Brandon Hagel | 7.8% |
| Jake Guentzel | 7.4% |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 3.9% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 3.7% |
Chicago Blackhawks
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Connor Bedard | 6.4% |
| Tyler Bertuzzi | 4.6% |
| Ilya Mikheyev | 4.2% |
| Frank Nazar | 3.7% |
| Nick Lardis | 3.4% |
Lightning vs. Hawks game-day updates and essential details
Friday's matchup between the Blackhawks and Lightning at United Center is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Chicago Blackhawks
- Date: Friday, January 23, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: United Center
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 68% win probability, will likely beat the Blackhawks on Friday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Blackhawks insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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