Buccaneers vs. Bills prediction: Buffalo favored to win in NFL Week 11, 2025

The Buffalo Bills will take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in NFL Week 11 action at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, commencing at 1:00PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NFL model projects the Bills as the most likely winner of the Buccaneers vs. Bills game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Bucs vs. Bills prediction: Who will win and cover?

Since our Buccaneers-Bills predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Buccaneers and Bills 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Bills a 72% chance of beating the Buccaneers in Week 11 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bills winning 26-19.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Buccaneers and Bills each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 46.5 points has a 52% chance of staying under.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 11 straight up picks.

Buccaneers vs. Bills odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Buccaneers	Bills
Spread	+6.5 (-110)	-6.5 (-105)
Moneyline	+260	-290
Total	o46.5 (-108)	u46.5 (-112)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Buccaneers vs. Bills picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Bills -6.5	-105
Moneyline	Buccaneers	+260
Total	Under 46.5	-112

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Buccaneers to win.

Buccaneers vs. Bills TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Buccaneers vs. Bills?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, James Cook is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Buccaneers vs. Bills.

Our projections give Cook a 54.9% chance of scoring a TD at Highmark Stadium, while the running back is a 13.4% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Rachaad White (RB)	39.9%
Emeka Egbuka (WR)	37.8%
Sean Tucker (RB)	27.4%
Tez Johnson (WR)	26.5%
Cade Otton (TE)	22.3%

Buffalo Bills

Player	Anytime TD Probability
James Cook (RB)	54.9%
Josh Allen (QB)	46.8%
Khalil Shakir (WR)	28.7%
Dawson Knox (TE)	21.4%
Joshua Palmer (WR)	18.4%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player	First TD Probability
Rachaad White (RB)	8.8%
Emeka Egbuka (WR)	8.2%
Sean Tucker (RB)	5.6%
Tez Johnson (WR)	5.3%
Cade Otton (TE)	4.4%

Buffalo Bills

Player	First TD Probability
James Cook (RB)	13.4%
Josh Allen (QB)	10.6%
Khalil Shakir (WR)	5.7%
Dawson Knox (TE)	4.1%
Joshua Palmer (WR)	3.4%

Buccaneers vs Bills player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Buccaneers and Bills. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 11 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield is projected for 217 passing yards. The Bills' Josh Allen is expected to throw for 225 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Baker Mayfield (TB)	217
Josh Allen (BUF)	225

Buccaneers rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Rachaad White	49
Sean Tucker	40
Baker Mayfield	20

Bills rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
James Cook	86
Josh Allen	32
Ty Johnson	13

Buccaneers receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Emeka Egbuka	63
Cade Otton	40
Tez Johnson	38
Sterling Shepard	26
Rachaad White	20

Bills receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Khalil Shakir	55
Joshua Palmer	36
Dawson Knox	29
Tyrell Shavers	17
Curtis Samuel	16

Bucs vs. Bills game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 11 game between the Bills and Buccaneers at Highmark Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00PM ET.

• Who: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills
• Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025
• Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Highmark Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Bills, with a 72% win probability, will likely beat the Buccaneers in Week 11 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Buccaneers vs. Bills insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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